Steve Miley (The Market Chartist)

Steve Miley (The Market Chartist)

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in-Chief for FXExplained.co.uk, the Academic Dean for The London School of Wealth Management

At FXExplained.co.uk Steve is the Editor-in-Chief, alongside producing numerous articles for the site. The ability to be able to reach out to a wide, global audience with his own analysis and also assist and nurture other authors in their creative process makes this a role that Steve values deeply.
Here are Steve’s tips on what pages to follow closely on FxExplained: Current market analysis and Best trading app in UK.

The Market Chartist

The Market Chartist was founded in 2012 and provides daily technical analysis reports, with written commentary and key support/ resistance levels to an institutional, professional and retail client base. The 30+ daily reports include European, UK and US Bonds & Equity Index Futures, G10 currencies, UK Natural Gas, TTF Gas, German Power, EUA Emissions and LME Base Metals.

As The Market Chartist, Steve has won many awards from the Technical Analyst Magazine. He was the 2016 & 2013 Winner (plus 2014 Runner Up) for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy and winner of Best FX Research & Strategy in 2012. He was also a finalist in the Technical Analyst of the Year category each year for 2012-2017.

Other Current Positions

Steve is also the Academic Dean for The London School of Wealth Management, a role he really enjoys. He appreciates the opportunity to be able to educate a diverse array of students in all aspects of the financial market’s world. Steve says “to be able to be a part of transforming an individual’s life through education is truly a privilege and very exciting”.

Steve also writes extensively for numerous financial markets sites including: FxStreet.com, TechnicalAnalyst.co.uk, InsideFutures.com, BarChart.com, StockTwits.com, StockBrokers.com, AskTraders.com and Investing.com.

Previous to this, Steve was also a Senior Lecturer at The London Academy of Trading where he fully began his journey into the world of education. It was here that he honed his skills as a lecture and mentor in the world of financial markets education.

Vast Technical Analysis Experience

Steve has also helped technical analysis push into a new era in his previous role as Director at Vega Insight. Vega Insight is a relatively new company with a specific focus on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in global commodity and broader financial markets, with special focus on Energy. In his role Steve was responsible for the technical analysis inputs to the Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning.

Steve spent 2009-2012 as a Director in the Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse. Steve managed the FX division, responsible for the reports, forecasts and bank wide research for G10 & Emerging Markets currencies. In this role he also covered all major asset classes including Equity Indices, Rates & Credit, plus Commodities.

Steve spent most of his career at Merrill Lynch for 15 years from 1994-2009. The last ten years was as a Vice President in the research department as a technical analyst, responsible for daily reports, client presentations, plus in-house and client education programs. Prior to this, Steve was in the Fixed Income derivatives sales team where he managed the Italian Futures desk (BTP and EuroLira) on LIFFE (the London International Financial Futures Exchange). He was responsible for a four-man sales team, who consistently produced high volume of sales from both in-house and external clients.

He is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Master’s degree in politics, Philosophy & Economics from Oxford University (Lincoln College).


Beginner

Global Stocks Rally As No News = Good News

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 03/04/23 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (global): US ISM PMI; Fed Governor Cook speaks 04/04/23 RBA interest rate decision and statement; Fed Governor Cook speaks 05/04/23 S&P Global Services PMI (global): US ISM PMI; US ADP Employment change 06/04/23 Canada Employment report … Continued

Beginner

Global Stocks Chop as Bank Crisis Fear Pervade

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 27/03/23 Shift to Daylight Saving Time in the UK and EU on 26/03/23; German IFO 28/03/23 Australian Retail Sales 29/03/23 Australian CPI 30/03/23 EU Consumer Confidence; German CPI; US GDP and PCE 31/03/23 Japan CPI; China PMI; UK GDP; German Retail … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks Rally, Despite Lower Yield Plunge with Bank Crisis

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 20/03/23 Japan Vernal Equinox Day markets closed; no data of note 21/03/23 RBA Meeting Minutes; German ZEW Survey; Canadian CPI 22/03/23 UK CPI; US FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Projections and Press Conference 23/03/23 SNB and BoE Interest Rate Decisions 24/03/23 UK … Continued

Intermediate

Stock Indices Plunge on Hawkish Powell, Bank Worries, Mixed Job Report

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 13/03/23 US switched to Daylight Saving Time on Sunday 12/03 14/03/23 UK Employment report; US CPI   15/03/23 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; China Retails Sales; EU industrial Production; US Retail Sales  16/03/23 Australian Employment report; ECB Monetary Policy Decision, Statement and … Continued

Intermediate

Stock indices dip and then bounce as global yield surge pauses

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 06/03/23 EU Retail Sales 07/03/23 RBA interest rate decision; Jerome Powell testimony to Congress 08/03/23 German Retail Sales; EU Employment and GDP; ADP Employment Change; Jerome Powell testimony to Congress; BoC interest rate decision 09/03/23 Japan GDP; China CPI 10/03/23 BoJ … Continued

Beginner

Stock indices plunge, yield rise on hot inflation/ strong growth data

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 27/02/23 US Durable Goods 28/02/23 Australian Retail Sales; Canada GDP; US Consumer Confidence   01/03/23 Australian GDP; global S&P Global Manufacturing PMI; German Unemployment and CPI; US ISM Manufacturing PMI 02/03/23 EU Unemployment and CPI 03/03/23 Global S&P Global Services and … Continued

Intermediate

Stock indices consolidate, global bond yields rise, despite hotter US CPI and hawkish Fed tones

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 20/02/23 US Presidents day holiday, US equity and bond cash markets are closed; PBoC interest rate decision 21/02/23 RBA Meeting Minutes; global S&P Global Flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI); Canada CPI and Retail Sales 22/02/23 German CPI; German IFO Survey; FOMC … Continued

Intermediate

Stock indices set back on hawkish worries and Google concerns, global bond yields rise

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 13/02/23 Nothing of note 14/02/23 Japan GDP; UK Employment report; EU GDP; US CPI 15/02/23 UK CPI; US Retail Sales 16/02/23 Australian Employment report; US PPI 17/02/23 UK Retail Sales

Beginner

Dovish Central Bank Perception Trumps Mega cap Disappointment, Risk On Extends

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 06/02/23 EU Retail Sales 07/02/23 RBA interest rate decision; Fed’s Powell speaks 08/02/23 Nothing of note 09/02/23 German CPI  10/02/23 China CPI, UK GDP, Manufacturing and Industrial Production; Canada Employment report; US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Beginner

Mixed Earnings, But Strong Macro Data Sends Stocks Higher Ahead of MASSIVE week for Markets

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 30/01/23 German GDP; EU Consumer Confidence 31/01/23 China PMI; German Retail Sales; EU GDP; German CPI; US Consumer Confidence 01/02/23 EU CPI; global Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global; US ISM Manufacturing PMI; FOMC interest rate decision  02/02/23 BoE interest rate decision; … Continued

Beginner

Yields Fall Again as Global Stocks Dip and Bounce Further Into US Earnings Season

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 23/01/23 BoJ Meeting Minutes; EU Consumer Confidence 24/01/23 Flash PMI global drive from S&P Global  25/01/23 Australian CPI; German IFO; BoC interest rate decision  26/01/23 US GDP, PCE, Durable and Capital Goods Orders 27/01/23 US PCE

Beginner

Global Stocks Gain and Yields Fall Through Key CPI as US Earnings Kicks Off

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 16/01/23 US Martin Luther King Holiday, equity and bonds cash markets are closed 17/01/23 China GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales, UK Employment report, German CPI, German ZEW Survey, Canada CPI 18/01/23 UK inflation report (CPI); EU CPI; US PPI and … Continued

Beginner

Stocks Plunge After Mixed US Data and Still Hawkish Fed and ECB

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week This will be the last MacroWatch report for 2022. Happy holidays to you all, Merry Christmas and wishing you a great trading and investing year for 2023! Date Key Macroeconomic Events 19/12/22 German IFO Survey 20/12/22 RBA Meeting Minutes, PBoC interest rate decision; BoJ interest … Continued

Beginner

Stocks Fall After Positive Data, Ahead of US CPI, Fed, BoE and ECB

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 12/12/22 UK GDP, Industrial and Manufacturing Production  13/12/22 UK Employment; German CPI; German and EU ZEW Survey; US CPI 14/12/22 Japan Tankan report; UK inflation report (including CPI); FOMC Meeting, interest rate decision and press conference 15/12/22 Australia Employment; China Industrial … Continued

Beginner

“Risk On” Theme Extends, As Powell Reiterates Smaller Hikes

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 05/12/22 Global Services and Composite PMI data from S&P Global and US ISM Service PMI; EU Retail Sales 06/12/22 RBA interest rate decision 07/12/22 Australian GDP; EU GDP; BoC interest rate decision 08/12/22 Japan GDP 09/12/22 US PPI; Michigan Consumer Sentiment … Continued

Beginner

“Risk On” Theme Intact as Fed Seen Slowing Pace of Hikes

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 28/11/22 Australian Retail Sales 29/11/22 German CPI; Canadian GDP 30/11/22 Australian CPI; German Employment report; EU CPI; ADP Employment change; US GDP and PCE; Fed Chairman Powell speaks 01/12/22 German Retail Sales; global PMI data from S&P Global and US ISM … Continued

Beginner

Bear Market Rally or Bull Trend Resuming

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments UK inflation accelerated more than anticipated in October to hit a 41-year high of 11.1%, significantly above the 10.1% print in September. Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 21/11/22 PBoC interest rate decision 22/11/22 Canada Retail Sales 23/11/22 RBNZ interest rate decision; global Flash PMI from S&P … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks surge with lighter US inflation

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 14/11/22 Nothing of note 15/11/22 RBA Minutes; China Retail Sales; UK Employment; EU GDP; German ZEW Survey; US PPI 16/11/22 UK inflation report (including CPI); US Retail Sales; Canada CPI 17/11/22 Australia Employment; EU CPI  18/11/22 UK Retail Sales

Beginner

Using Fibonacci in Your Trading

The Fibonacci sequence of numbers has been used in trading strategies for many decades now and is a valuable tool in the identification of important levels to monitor when trading markets. In this article, we will look at: The historical and mathematical basis of the Fibonacci numbers An outline of the various Fibonacci numbers used … Continued

Beginner

Why you should keep a trading log

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” – Albert Einstein Progress can be tracked by considering the history of a set of actions and outcomes. For a trader or investor, if you want to learn how to successfully trade Stocks, Indices, Forex, Bonds or Commodities (or any of the … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks drop with hawkish Powell

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 07/11/22 China trade data 08/11/22 US midterm elections; EU Retail Sales 09/11/22 China CPI 10/11/22 US CPI 11/11/22 UK GDP; German CPI; US Veterans Day, Bond markets closed

Expert

Hawk / Dove Sheet

Here we present the Hawk / Dove sheet, an explanation of the terminology as well as the implications on forex trading and how it is used in fundamental analysis. Hawkish and Dovish HawkishA Hawk is a term originally used in economics to describe economists or Central Bankers who are more concerned with potential recession from … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks advance with upbeat earnings, despite Fed Hawks

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US third-quarter earnings results are largely meeting or beating expectations. About a fifth of S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 results, and approximately 73% have exceeded forecasts. Investor sentiment has been very negative, possibly assisting the market rebound, the Bank of America Fund Managers monthly survey showed investors were holding the most … Continued

Intermediate

Erratic post US CPI as assets classes whipsaw

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US core consumer price index (CPI) inflation hit at four-decade high, at 6.6% year-over-year, higher than consensus. Earnings season began, with US financials leading the way, overall posting above expectations. In the UK, the U-turns continue on the much-criticised mini budget, with the chancellor of the exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng a political casualty, … Continued

Intermediate

Risk On Recovery Stall

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments On the data front, Monday saw the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI activity data, which was below expectations, and also showed falling price pressures (fuelling a risk on theme to start the week, month and quarter). Further easing inflation fears and adding to the risk on tone, the US job … Continued

Intermediate

UK mini-budget creates contagion chaos, Bonds and Stocks plunge

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The UK mini-budget on Friday 23rd September that saw tax-cuts, the cancellation of national insurance and corporation tax increases, supply-side reforms, plus a GBP 60 billion energy support package had serious impacts on global financial markets last week. The Pound plunged across the Forex board, which saw Cable, GBPUSD, hit an all-time-low, … Continued

Intermediate

“Risk off” theme continues – stocks plunge, US Dollar gains, commodities slump. Pound gets crushed after UK mini-budget

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The key focus last week was the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, statement and press conference on Wednesday. This brought an anticipated 75bp rate hike, but also a more hawkish tone than markets had anticipated, with rates possibly now moving to a higher peak in 2023 up to 4.50% and … Continued

Intermediate

Hot US CPI Sets “Risk Off” Theme; Fed in Focus in Busy Week for CBs

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The dominant event last week was the far higher than expected release for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. Headline CPI rose 8.3% YoY ended August against expectations of an 8.1% rise. Core inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) leapt to its highest level since March at 6.3%, higher … Continued

Intermediate

A Cross Asset Class Shift To “Risk On”

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Easing inflation fears seemed to be at work last week, possibly assisted by a midweek decline in oil prices to multi-month lows. Plus, the Fed’s “Beige Book” indicated that price increases were moderating in 9 of its 12 districts. Fed speakers Brainard and Mester also delivered comments that seemed to be more … Continued

Intermediate

Hawkish Fed Tone, “Risk Off” Theme Intact

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Further hawkish messages from Federal Reserve officials last week have reinforced the tone evident since the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell’s 26th August Jackson Hole speech. Friday’s US Employment report saw 315K jobs added, down from the revised 526K number for July, but still a solid report. Global financial market developments The major … Continued

Intermediate

Hawkish Fed Tone, US-Sino Tensions, Strong Jobs Data, But Still “Risk On”

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Markets had interpreted Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference after the July 26-27 policy meeting as a dovish “pivot”. Last week several Fed officials pushed back against this dovish market narrative and indicated that the central bank is still steadfast in raising rates until inflation is under control House Speaker Nancy … Continued

Intermediate

Fed “Pivot”, Weak Data, Better Tech Earnings, Still “Risk On”

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased rates on Wednesday by 0.75%, taking the benchmark Fed Funds rate to about 2.5% Powell highlighted a Fed Funds range of 3.0%-3.5% by year end, implying about 50-100 basis points of more tightening over the three meetings for the balance of this year, … Continued

Intermediate

Restrained “Risk on” Theme Continues

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The Monthly Fund Manager Survey from Bank of America showed that funds’ cash holdings are at their highest levels since 9/11, and equity exposure at the lowest levels since the 2007–2009 global financial crisis and recession. This can be viewed as a contrary indicator, meaning that there is plenty of cash to … Continued

Beginner

Stocks Rebound, Despite “Hot” US CPI

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The big data print came from US CPI on Wednesday with the headline number moving to 9.1% YoY, up from the 8.6% print in May and higher than consensus. There is now a growing anticipation from short-term interest rate markets that the Fed could raise rates by 1.00% at their meeting on … Continued

Beginner

Global stock indices reinforce basing attempts

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday reinforced recent hawkish comments from Fed members. S&P Global Services and Composite PMI, plus US ISM Services PMI came in above forecast for the US and were also broadly better than expected globally and notably for the UK and across Europe, although hitting very low levels. … Continued

Intermediate

Stock averages erratic – basing efforts or bear market rallies?

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2022, from Sintra, Portugal saw the world’s major central bankers reaffirm their commitment to fighting inflation. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data was mixed last week, with some of the European data beating expectations, whilst the US PMI data from S&P Global just … Continued

Intermediate

Stock averages base with glimmers of inflation peaking and slowdown signs

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Moderating inflation pressures and falling growth data helped global stock indices secures gains and technical bases last week. Global S&P Flash PMI on Thursday were not only lower than for May, but also below expectations in many instances, with the US services data hitting its lowest level since January. In addition, long … Continued

Intermediate

Central Bank activity leaves stocks vulnerable, but mixed signals elsewhere

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Central Banks were front and center last week, with the Swiss National Bank (SNB), US Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) all in play. First, the ECB held an ad hoc, emergency meeting on Wednesday to deal with surging bond yields for … Continued

Intermediate

ECB Pivots + Hot US CPI = Risk Off Acceleration

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) pivoted to a more hawkish stance on Thursday, signaling a rate hike in July and maybe more aggressive rate hikes than anticipated thereafter. In addition, they announced the end to their Quantative Easing (QE) program, the Asset Purchase Program (APP) Friday’s US CPI data showed … Continued

Intermediate

Stock averages consolidate bases, “risk on” theme intact

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The EU agreed on a partial ban on Russian oil. OPEC+ agreed on bigger oil-output hikes for July and August on Thursday, but still disappointed the oil market, which rebounded strongly, having previously sold off in anticipation of more aggressive hikes. EU inflation hit a new record high at 8.1%. Despite markets … Continued

Intermediate

Strong stock index rebounds for technical “bases”, “risk on”

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Selling exhaustion in the equity markets saw recoveries last week, and a cross market shift to a “risk on” theme. This was helped by some positive forecasts from Macy’s, Ralph Lauren and Nordstrom. Fed Minutes pointed to hints of flexibility, helping the more positive outlook. Economic data was mixed, but the PCE … Continued

Intermediate

Recession fears sees S&P 500 threaten bear market

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Poor results from US retailers, notably Target, but also Walmart, Lowe’s and Home Depot, highlighted a weakened US consumer. This stoked fears of a larger slowdown and future recession. This on top of US and global inflation worries, and hawkish Central Banks stoked the stagflation fire. Fed speakers, including Chair Powell have … Continued

Intermediate

US inflation still running hot, BUT hints at stock averages basing

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US CPI headline data year over year rose 8.3%, falling from March’s pace but not as much as expected, with consensus around 8.1%. Jerome Powell again stated that a hike of 0.75% was not something being actively considered, but was still a possibility. Possible easing of pandemic lockdowns in Shanghai, China brought … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks stay bearish even after “less hawkish” Fed

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A 0.5% hike by the Fed as expected, but Jerome Powell stated that a hike of 0.75% was “not something we are actively considering.” Stock indices initially rallied strongly on this information Wednesday, then reversed these gains and more on Thursday and Friday. Friday’s US Jobs reports saw 428K jobs added in … Continued

Intermediate

Disappointing tech earnings leave stocks vulnerable, after erratic April end

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Disappointing earnings results from the tech sector last week, including Alphabet and Amazon, and concerning forward guidance from Apple eclipsed solid Meta numbers. The US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index YOY data, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge posted its first deceleration in over a year, whilst the YOY headline … Continued

Intermediate

Hawkish Fed > higher yield pressures > stocks plunge again

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments More hawkish comments from various Fed policymakers, notably Bullard and Fed Chair Powell indicated even more aggressive interest rate hikes in 2022 and also in the near future, sending bond and stock markets lower in the US and globally. European Central Bank (ECB) hawks and doves have called for earlier and more … Continued

Intermediate

Higher yield pressure sees value stocks outperform growth counterparts

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US headline CPI data leapt by 1.2% in March, with the year-over-year rise at 8.5%, above consensus expectations to a four-decade high. More hawkish comments from Charles Evans of the Fed (historically a dove) regarding accelerated rate hikes echoed the comments the prior week from another dove, Lael Brainard. The European Central … Continued

Intermediate

Even more hawkish Fed sends bonds and stock averages lower

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Hawkish comments from Lael Brainard of the Fed (usually more of a dove) regarding rate hikes and balance sheet normalization saw Bonds yields surge last Tuesday, with growth/ tech stocks leading the US stock averages lower. This was affirmed by Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting Minutes, which reinforced a more hawkish threat from the … Continued

Intermediate

Stock index rally extends, but slows

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have been less dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as a lack of any significant escalation has seen a further shift towards more of a “risk on” theme for stocks since mid-March. There have also been hopes from the Ukraine/ Russia talks and also from reported setbacks suffered … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks surge as Bonds plunge

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have been less dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as a lack of any significant escalation has seen a further shift towards more of a “risk on” theme for global risky assets (notably stocks) since mid-March. This has also been assisted by hopes from the Ukraine/ Russia talks … Continued

Intermediate

“Risk on” theme emerging

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have once more been dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but with a shift towards more of a “risk on” theme through mid-March. This has been driven by hopes from minimally positive signals from the Ukraine/ Russia talks. And, although there have been some upsetting impacts on civilians, … Continued

Beginner

“Risk off” theme slightly eases despite Russia/ Ukraine conflict

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have again been dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with shifts between “risk on” and “risk off” themes. Further punitive sanctions including the US barring Russian oil imports has increased the threat to global trade and global economic growth. Global commodity prices have again risen aggressively, but also … Continued

Intermediate

“Risk off” theme as Russian invasion continues

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have again been dominated by developments in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with shifts between “risk off” and “risk on” themes. More punitive sanctions have seen European and U.K. stocks under particular pressure given the likely impact on global trade and the global economy. Global commodity prices have risen … Continued

Intermediate

Russian invasion of Ukraine sees “risk off” then “risk on”

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The markets were dominated last week with shifts between “risk off” then “risk on” themes with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The “risk off” theme on the initial invasion quickly shifted to “risk on”, as is often seen when conflict is predicted by markets and then finally breaks out, “sell the rumour, … Continued

Intermediate

Intensifying Russia/ Ukraine fears reinforce “risk off” theme

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The markets were dominated last week with shifts between “risk on” then “risk off” themes with conflicting reports regarding the potential for conflict starting between Russia and Ukraine. Reports of Russian troops withdrawing saw a “risk on” move earlier in the week, which was dismissed by Western statements regarding a potentially imminent … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks rebound through volatile earnings and Central Bank hawkishness

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A more hawkish tone from global central banks with the Fed shifting more hawkish through January, on Thursday we saw the Bank of England and European Central Bank both signal a more hawkish tone. The Bank of England delivered a 25bp interest rate hike as anticipated, but the vote was close for … Continued

Intermediate

More hawkish Fed sees volatile stocks and a strong greenback

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments We got the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, statement and press conference on Wednesday and although markets moved initially to a “risk on” theme after the statement, the press conference saw a “risk off” shift, as, markets interpreted comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell as opening the door … Continued

Intermediate

Inflation/ interest rate/ Ukraine fears trigger “risk off”

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Increasing worries of global inflationary pressures and fears of even higher interest rates from the major Central Banks have seen a more aggressive shift to a “risk off” phase through mid-January. These concerns have been heightened by the threat of conflict as Russia continues to amass troops on the Ukrainian border. These … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks trying to rebound, despite still more hawkish Fed

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Ongoing concerns of global inflationary pressures have seen an erratic start to the year for global markets, seen again last week. The US CPI data for December showed a 7% rise over a year, the highest inflation rate since 1982! Although this was priced in, it continues to fuel inflationary and higher … Continued

Intermediate

Higher yields and hawkish Fed send stocks lower

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments 2022 kicked off with a continuation of the latter 2021 theme of rising concerns of global inflationary pressures. This saw a rise in not just US bond yields, but in global bond yields, particularly in the major, economic centres. This higher yield theme was reinforced by the release of the Minutes from … Continued

Intermediate

Omicron and hawkish Central Bank fears send stocks lower

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Concerns that the Omicron strain of COVID-19 could contribute to supply chain disruptions and weigh on global economic growth have resurfaced over the past week. This has been driven by global medical institutions warnings of the more contagious aspect of Omicron the surging numbers of cases in many countries (for example the … Continued

Intermediate

Omicron and inflation fears easing, as “risk on” theme resumes

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Concerns that the Omicron strain of COVID-19 could contribute to supply chain disruptions and weigh on global economic growth have decreased over the past week. This has been due to positive sounding from vaccine providers and medical institutions regarding the efficacy of vaccines and that the variant could be less severe than … Continued