Current Market Analysis

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Major Macro Data 12/04/2023 Nothing of note 12/05/2023 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision; global S&P Global Services and Composite PMI, US ISM Services PMI 12/06/2023 Australian GDP; EU Retail Sales; BoC Interest Rate Decision and Statement; US ADP Employment Change 12/07/2023 China Trade Balance; … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Major Macro Data 11/27/2023 Nothing of note 11/28/2023 RBNZ interest rate decision, statement and press conference 11/29/2023 EU Consumer Confidence; German CPI; US GDP and PCE (QoQ) 11/30/2023 Chinese PMI; German Retail Sales; German Unemployment; EU CPI; US PCE (MoM and YoY); Canadian GDP; … Continued

US and UK inflation beat expectations => Risk On extends Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Major Macro Data 11/20/2023 PBoC Interest Rate decision 11/21/2023 RBA Meeting Minutes; Canada CPI; US FOMC Meeting Minutes 11/22/2023 US Durable Goods; Michigan Consumer Sentiment 11/23/2023 US Thanksgiving holiday; global Flash PMI from S&P … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: A very quiet week for CB with nothing of note apart from the US Fed speakers to stay in focus. Macro Data Watch: An important week for data with CPI data releases from the US (Tuesday), UK (Wednesday) and the EU (Friday), … Continued

So far this year, companies have planned 604,514 job cuts, a 198% increase from the 209,495 cuts announced through September 2022. It is the highest January-September total since 2020 when 2,082,262 cuts were recorded. Apart from that COVID year it is the highest January to September total since 2009. The real story behind the labor … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week General: US Daylight Saving Time ended at the weekend, so the time difference between the US and the rest of the planet is back to normal in most cases  Central Bank Watch: A relatively quiet week for CBs, we get Bank of Japan (BoJ) Meeting … Continued

It’s possible to think that corporate ESG – environmental, social and governance – investing is a thoroughly good idea. Which is how fashionable society seems to see it right now. It’s also possible to think that corporate ESG is merely a passing fad and an expression of the agency problem – precisely because fashionable society … Continued

The Markets in Crypto Assets is the EU’s regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and digital assets. Through it, the European Union aims to centralize regulations governing the issuance and sale of digital assets, including bitcoin and various other cryptocurrencies. In addition to replacing a patchwork of national crypto regulations, MiCA will also clarify the playing field … Continued

CAB Payments was an IPO on the London market back only this summer. It’s also imploded already.  Which is pretty good and matches the very worst performances from some of the Nasdaq despac operations. And IPO is supposed to be very much more verified than a Spac so this isn’t a grand advertisement for participating … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week General: UK and EU Daylight Saving Time ended at the weekend, so for this week there is only a 4-hour time difference between London and New York. Daylight Saving Time ends in the US next weekend, 4/5 November. Central Bank Watch: The Bank of Japan … Continued

It is indeed true that Gina Rinehart has built a 20% position in Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR) and she’s long been known as a very canny strategic player in the metals business. But that’s not to say that she – or anyone else – is always right in this space. It’s equally possible to believe … Continued

The price of SolarEdge (NASDAQ: SEDG) dropped 27% in one day last week. That of Enphase (NASDAQ: ENPH) followed within minutes by falling 15%. The two companies are not directly related, they’re not – at least not particularly – supplier and customer, or partners. They are in the same sector though. Which is the thing … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: The Fed is in its blackout period ahead of the November 1st interest rate decision. We get the Bank of Canada (BoC) and European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions, statements and press conferences on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.  Macroeconomic data Watch: … Continued

Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) just stopped a set of tests for semaglutide, their wonder drug. The share prices of the kidney dialysis companies all dropped 20% within hours. The big question is whether this is the right reaction, too much or too little? It’s entirely possible to argue any of those three cases but the … Continued

The Securities and Exchange Commission over in the US has decided that short selling is one of these nefarious attacks upon the integrity of the markets. At least that’s the usual Democratic Party response to the very idea of short selling. Which is, as we all know, selling something now in the hope of being … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: A quiet week for central banks, though we do get Fed speakers through the week, which is the last week before the Fed speaker blackout period ahead of the early November FOMC Meeting. We get Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes … Continued

The major issue with the bond market right now is the overwhelming amount of bond issuance combined with the notable absence of the usual buyers. In other words, the illiquidity is already causing U.S. sovereign debt to trade like a microcap penny stock. This dysfunctional trading environment should become exponentially worse by the end of … Continued

It’s a standard outcome of the standard investing theories that diversification is good. On the fairly obvious grounds that spreading your risks is a good thing to be doing. Yes, yes, this idea really is the killer and yet there’s always that possibility that something will come up to kill it. So, not all eggs … Continued

In the wake of Hamas attacks, the US-brokered deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia now hangs by a thread. What’s going on? In March 2020, when the covid-19 pandemic sent the UK into lockdown, half the country stopped work overnight. Not financial analysts though — as the global stock market lost a third of its … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week A quiet start to the week, with the US Columbus Day holiday on Monday, US cash bond markets are closed, plus it is Thanksgiving Day in Canada. Central Bank Watch: A quiet week for central banks, with the main focus on the release of the … Continued

Yes. Well, OK, we might need a little more explanation than that. Environmental, social and governance investing, ESG, is absolutely, wholly, worth it in one sense, the moral one. As a way to make money well, not so much. Which means that if you’re looking to invest while keeping your soul pure then ESG might … Continued

Pilbara Minerals is great actually, it’s the result of one of the blindingly best mining deals in recent years. Once there was a lithium miner called Altura, financed in the last lithium mining boom of 2013/4. Which found lithium, developed the mine and was doing great right up to the day it went bust. The … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 10/02/2023 Global Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global; US ISM Manufacturing PMI; Fed’s Powell speaks; EU Unemployment 10/03/2023 RBA interest rate decision and statement 10/04/2023 RBNZ interest rate decision and statement; Global Services and Composite PMI from S&P Global; EU Retail Sales; … Continued

It’s possible to think that the Spac boom is near its end. We can approach this through theory, we can approach it through cynical realism, we can approach it through recent results. This isn’t to say that no Spac (or “despac”) deal is ever going to work but perhaps it’s time to admit that the … Continued

The ways in which values change as macroeconomic conditions change can be complex and not even obvious. One recent one, over the past couple of years, makes older British companies more valuable relative to newer ones. Now, of course, this doesn’t mean that all older companies are now worth more than all new ones. Rather, … Continued

FTSE-only ISA allowances could boost the AIM market sharply; scrapping Inheritance Tax could have the opposite effect. Read why below. Cast your mind back to November 2022 — centuries in investing, and yet less than a year ago. After the Truss-Kwarteng mini-budget adventure, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is telling the nation that even though we are … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 09/25/2023 German IFO Survey 09/26/2023 US Consumer Confidence 09/27/2023 Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes; Australian CPI; US Durable Goods Orders 09/28/2023 German CPI; US GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) QoQ; Fed’s Powell speaks 09/29/2023 UK GDP; German Retail Sales and … Continued

There is much excitement in the cannabis industry as the Federales start to talk about legalisation. Or changing the legal description and restrictions at least. Or something in the run up to an election perhaps. This might not be as wondrous as many a share price seems to assume. The particular and specific is that … Continued

Investing in development pharmaceutical companies is one of those high risk rollercoasters that can be terribly exciting – and, if done right, profitable. But to be profitable it’s essential to understand the structure of how the business works. Precisely because it’s a rollercoaster some managements can be a little more aggressive, to be mild about … Continued

The US recession is merely delayed, not canceled. The soft-landing narrative is a myth. The government’s fiscal stimulus in 2023 has temporarily lifted the GDP growth rate. However, fiscal stimulus is not a reliable source of economic growth. It undermines productivity in the long term. It also creates problems such as higher taxes, higher interest … Continued

The ghastly problem with mantras about the economy, rules we think are certain, is that they only apply sometimes. A useful macroeconomic trade is to play the FTSE100 to GBP, or pound sterling rate. This does only work one way though – FTSE rising does not change the value of the pound. But the GBP … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 09/11/2023 Nothing of note 09/12/2023 UK Employment report; German ZEW Survey 09/13/2023 UK GDP, Industrial and Manufacturing Production; US CPI 09/14/2023 Australian Employment report; ECB interest rate decision and press conference; US PPI and Retail Sales 09/15/2023 Chinese Industrial Production and … Continued

The idea that a start up Vietnamese EV maker is worth more than Boeing does tell us that VinFast (NASDAQ: VFS) is over-valued. Well, either that or that Boeing is under-valued of course. But that VinFast has at times been worth more than Ford, GM, Stellantis, at times even worth more than two of the … Continued

Increasing Sino-US tensions, emergency fiscal measures, and a collapsing real estate sector all signpost a near-term serious economic shock. While economists have been warning that China faces imminent economic collapse since the start of the economic miracle, the warning signs coming out of the Communist country’s heavily massaged figures are blaring red. Of course, this … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 09/04/2023 US Labor Day public holiday 09/05/2023 Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy, Final Services PMIs for Eurozone & UK, US Factory Orders 09/06/2023 Australian GDP, Bank of Canada monetary policy; ISM Services PMI, Fed’s Beige Book 09/07/2023 China’s Trade Balance; … Continued

Tingo (NASDAQ: TIO) is a company operating in the agricultural and fintech space in Nigeria and other parts of West Africa. Tingo is also the latest target of Hindenburg who insist the entire set up is a scam from start to finish. Well, that certainly plays into all our prejudices about Nigerian 419 scams and … Continued

There’s a revolution a’comin’ in the American insulin market – to the point we need a man on a horse to ride about shouting that “The Biosimilars are Comin’!”. Well, OK, perhaps not quite that inventive but the idea still stands. There’s a radical change about to happen in that market. And it’s not just … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 08/28/2023 n/a 08/29/2023 US Consumer Confidence, JOLTS Jobs Openings 08/30/2023 Australian CPI inflation; German prelim CPI; ADP Employment Change, US Prelim GDP, Pending Home Sales 08/31/2023 China Official PMIs; Eurozone Flash HICP inflation and Unemployment, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts; US … Continued

The Fed’s minutes for their latest meeting held in July showed the committee’s interest in raising interest rates further due to upside risks to inflation that is already well above their target level. The Fed is also perpetually worried about growth, which of course has nothing to do with inflation. After all, people working and … Continued

Yellow Corporation (NYSE: YELL) and now, given the Chapter 11 (OTCPK: YELLQ), has managed to prove an interesting contention. Does a union contract – which gets the workforce partnered up with the management – add or subtract value from the company? From this example it would seem that the union is very definitely a negative. … Continued

One of the big stories of 2023 has been the impressive rally of the NASDAQ and the huge outperformance of Big Tech. The main driver of this has been US chipmaker, Nvidia. The semiconductor company that provides the processors crucial for Artificial Intelligence applications such as ChatGPT, has been at the forefront of the tech … Continued

A placing RNS is the constant fear of AIM investors, while spectacular gains are also never far from their minds. As a high risk, high reward investor, many of my favourite stocks can be found on the Financial Times Stock Exchange Alternative Investment Market — or FTSE AIM as the snazzy acronym goes. I also … Continued

There has been a decisive recovery in oil futures since late June. A recovery that threatened to break decisively clear of key resistance and change the medium to longer-term outlook. However, the mood has shifted in the past couple of weeks, with futures going into retreat. This has come as there has been a shift … Continued

On 22nd September 2022, with the USD/JPY pair having risen above 145, the Bank of Japan felt that enough was enough. The Japanese yen had weakened to such an extent that the BoJ felt compelled to intervene in the forex markets (by selling USD) for the first time in 24 years. Over the next few … Continued

True, we’ve got to use a colloquial, not legal, sense of the word “steal” here. But the shareholders of Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) can indeed now claim that a court has said that their companies, their shares, were stolen from them. Just to make sure here, we are using that … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 08/21/2023 n/a 08/22/2023 Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed Manufacturing 08/23/2023 Flash PMIs from Australia, Japan, Eurozone, UK and the US; Eurozone Consumer Confidence; US New Home Sales 08/24/2023 ECB minutes; US Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders; Jackson Hole Economic Symposium … Continued

There has been a shift in sentiment in recent weeks. After having rallied consistently for over four months, US index futures have turned lower. Previously, unwinding moves were seen as a chance to buy. However, we are increasingly now seeing rallies used as an opportunity to sell. The corrective forces are mounting, both fundamentally and … Continued

Techtronic Industries (HKG: 0669) (OTCQX: TTNDF) got accused, a few months back, of fraud. Of course, it was a short seller that made the accusation, and it was one of those slightly complicated to follow things. It was also one of those things where there was no immediate disaster likely for the company. It could … Continued

Perception can be crucial to the performance of an asset. Traders have been focused on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) having finished its hiking cycle. With other major central banks either still tightening, or potentially still tightening, the NZD has been mired in underperformance against major currencies. However, could this now be about … Continued

The Bank of England (BoE) is squarely focused on still fighting the high levels of inflation that the UK is suffering from. One of the key drivers of inflation is the cost-push forces of wages. The latest data on the UK labour market and wage growth will therefore be causing some furrowed brows down the … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Index futures are breaking, or are threatening to break below key support areas. The e-mini NASDAQ 100 futures have broken below the higher low at 15063, whilst the e-mini S&P 500 futures are threatening the support at 4411. If these breaks are confirmed, they come as outlook-changing moves. … Continued

We know from Fed Chair Powell at the July FOMC meeting that the Federal Reserve is data-dependent. It means that the data for the US labour market and inflation this month and next month (that comes out before the September FOMC meeting) will be crucial in helping to formulate the monetary policy decisions in the … Continued

Q2 corporate earnings season in the States has been little help for US index futures. Despite it being a strong earnings season for positive surprises, the associated boost that markets have been lacking. It means that as earnings season winds down, the positive outlook on the technical analysis will have plenty of heavy lifting to … Continued

The outlook for gold remains closely tied to the direction of the dollar. The recovery in the US dollar in the past couple of weeks has been negative for precious metals. Although gold may be holding up better than others in the precious metals space, it is still struggling amid a resurgence in the USD. … Continued

We all know the phrase, go woke, go broke. But as investors – or, if we refer, speculators – what matters is how true this is? We can all find the occasional example of any contention we wish to make – what matters is whether we’ve found a pattern. Patterns, by definition, are things that … Continued

Imagine if it were possible to invest in something you knew, absolutely, was a mistake. And yet still make money. Well, no, you can’t – investing would be the wrong word. Speculating on a mistake being made by others yes, that does or at least can work. As with this little flurry in American Superconductors … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 08/07/2023 n/a 08/08/2023 Chinese trade balance; US Trade Balance 08/09/2023 Chinese CPI and PPI 08/10/2023 US CPI 08/11/2023 UK monthly GDP, Industrial Production and Trade Balance; US PPI and prelim Michigan Sentiment

The Bank of England has hiked once more, for the 14th meeting in a row. However, just as other major central banks (such as the Fed and the ECB) have done recently, there was more of a dovish tilt to the decision this time. A 25 basis points hike to 5.25% is leaving GBP traders … Continued

Bonds have been a sure fire money loser these past couple of years – at least fixed coupon have. Anything with a fixed coupon always does lose out when there’re either rising interest rates or inflation. But now there’s that idea that the rate cycle has peaked. So, is it time to get back into … Continued

Oil futures have spent much of the past year in a bear phase. Selling pressure with a series of lower highs and lower lows has driven the price to lose as much as -49% of its value since June 2022. However, something has changed in recent weeks. Fundamentals on both supply and demand sides have … Continued

Anyone long of EUR has had a bit of a rough ride since the European Central Bank meeting at the end of July. Christine Lagarde shifted from a decisively hawkish position in the previous meeting to one of considerable uncertainty. The EUR was hit hard on its major crosses. However, with an unexpected upside surprise … Continued

IAG, AstraZeneca, Shell, Lloyds & Rio Tinto have all reported Q2 earnings; but what nuggets of investor information can be gleaned? The FTSE 100 is a misunderstood beast. While the index is often invoked as a proxy for the UK economy, the reality is very different, as 82% of FTSE 100 corporate income is derived … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 07/31/2023 China Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone Flash HICP Inflation 08/01/2023 Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy, Final Manufacturing PMIs for Eurozone & UK, US ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS jobs openings 08/02/2023 ADP Employment Change 08/03/2023 Final Services/Composite PMIs for Eurozone … Continued

The pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to continue to hike interest rates has further eased after the announcement that a range of inflation metrics had fallen more than forecast. The relative performance of the AUD on major forex has improved lately as currencies such as the EUR and GBP have suffered corrective pressure. … Continued

Russia is trying to renege on the deal to allow Ukrainian grain out through the Black Sea ports. India has just banned exports of the common grades of rice based upon climate problems – or perhaps weather, who knows what they call it these days. That means that our speculative energies should turn to food … Continued

Oil has been moving higher since the end of June. After a bout of consolidation over the past week the price has broken higher once more (arguably a “bull flag” on the technicals). The latest driving force has been the talk of stimulus from the Chinese Government. However, this short-term bump higher could quickly turn … Continued

Polymetal (LON: POLY) (NASDAQ: AUCOY) (NASDAQ: POYYF) is about to delist in London (the two American quotes are really gone already) and will pop up again as a Kazakh domiciled and quoted company. At some future but as yet unknown date.  This gives us all a wondrous speculation. But one which is of high risk … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 07/24/2023 Flash PMIs for Australia, Eurozone, the UK and the US 07/25/2023 German Ifo Business Climate, US Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing 07/26/2023 Australian CPI, US New Home Sales, FOMC monetary policy 07/27/2023 European Central Bank monetary policy; US Durable Goods … Continued

This is one of those really annoying – but unfortunately true – things about investing knowledge. Not everything we know, know absolutely, can be traded upon. Sometimes, obviously enough, that’s because we’re barred by law from trading on it. There’s a massive price difference between Polymetal (MCX: POLY) in Moscow and the quote that’s just … Continued

Echoes of early 2022 whisper across time into the wheat markets. What happens next? On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Or, more accurately, a war that has been raging since at least 2014 intensified. Putin’s failed attempt to take Kyiv within days would likely have had little effect on the commodities markets if he … Continued

In the last three weeks, there has been a decisive shift in the outlook for gold. A two-month corrective downtrend that drove a retreat in the price from $2072 to a low of $1892 (a near -9% correction) has now turned on its head. A rally has taken hold as two key intertwined factors have … Continued