Current Market Analysis

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Index futures are breaking, or are threatening to break below key support areas. The e-mini NASDAQ 100 futures have broken below the higher low at 15063, whilst the e-mini S&P 500 futures are threatening the support at 4411. If these breaks are confirmed, they come as outlook-changing moves. … Continued

We know from Fed Chair Powell at the July FOMC meeting that the Federal Reserve is data-dependent. It means that the data for the US labour market and inflation this month and next month (that comes out before the September FOMC meeting) will be crucial in helping to formulate the monetary policy decisions in the … Continued

Q2 corporate earnings season in the States has been little help for US index futures. Despite it being a strong earnings season for positive surprises, the associated boost that markets have been lacking. It means that as earnings season winds down, the positive outlook on the technical analysis will have plenty of heavy lifting to … Continued

The outlook for gold remains closely tied to the direction of the dollar. The recovery in the US dollar in the past couple of weeks has been negative for precious metals. Although gold may be holding up better than others in the precious metals space, it is still struggling amid a resurgence in the USD. … Continued

We all know the phrase, go woke, go broke. But as investors – or, if we refer, speculators – what matters is how true this is? We can all find the occasional example of any contention we wish to make – what matters is whether we’ve found a pattern. Patterns, by definition, are things that … Continued

Imagine if it were possible to invest in something you knew, absolutely, was a mistake. And yet still make money. Well, no, you can’t – investing would be the wrong word. Speculating on a mistake being made by others yes, that does or at least can work. As with this little flurry in American Superconductors … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 08/07/2023 n/a 08/08/2023 Chinese trade balance; US Trade Balance 08/09/2023 Chinese CPI and PPI 08/10/2023 US CPI 08/11/2023 UK monthly GDP, Industrial Production and Trade Balance; US PPI and prelim Michigan Sentiment

The Bank of England has hiked once more, for the 14th meeting in a row. However, just as other major central banks (such as the Fed and the ECB) have done recently, there was more of a dovish tilt to the decision this time. A 25 basis points hike to 5.25% is leaving GBP traders … Continued

Bonds have been a sure fire money loser these past couple of years – at least fixed coupon have. Anything with a fixed coupon always does lose out when there’re either rising interest rates or inflation. But now there’s that idea that the rate cycle has peaked. So, is it time to get back into … Continued

Oil futures have spent much of the past year in a bear phase. Selling pressure with a series of lower highs and lower lows has driven the price to lose as much as -49% of its value since June 2022. However, something has changed in recent weeks. Fundamentals on both supply and demand sides have … Continued

Anyone long of EUR has had a bit of a rough ride since the European Central Bank meeting at the end of July. Christine Lagarde shifted from a decisively hawkish position in the previous meeting to one of considerable uncertainty. The EUR was hit hard on its major crosses. However, with an unexpected upside surprise … Continued

IAG, AstraZeneca, Shell, Lloyds & Rio Tinto have all reported Q2 earnings; but what nuggets of investor information can be gleaned? The FTSE 100 is a misunderstood beast. While the index is often invoked as a proxy for the UK economy, the reality is very different, as 82% of FTSE 100 corporate income is derived … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 07/31/2023 China Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone Flash HICP Inflation 08/01/2023 Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy, Final Manufacturing PMIs for Eurozone & UK, US ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS jobs openings 08/02/2023 ADP Employment Change 08/03/2023 Final Services/Composite PMIs for Eurozone … Continued

The pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to continue to hike interest rates has further eased after the announcement that a range of inflation metrics had fallen more than forecast. The relative performance of the AUD on major forex has improved lately as currencies such as the EUR and GBP have suffered corrective pressure. … Continued

Russia is trying to renege on the deal to allow Ukrainian grain out through the Black Sea ports. India has just banned exports of the common grades of rice based upon climate problems – or perhaps weather, who knows what they call it these days. That means that our speculative energies should turn to food … Continued

Oil has been moving higher since the end of June. After a bout of consolidation over the past week the price has broken higher once more (arguably a “bull flag” on the technicals). The latest driving force has been the talk of stimulus from the Chinese Government. However, this short-term bump higher could quickly turn … Continued

Polymetal (LON: POLY) (NASDAQ: AUCOY) (NASDAQ: POYYF) is about to delist in London (the two American quotes are really gone already) and will pop up again as a Kazakh domiciled and quoted company. At some future but as yet unknown date.  This gives us all a wondrous speculation. But one which is of high risk … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 07/24/2023 Flash PMIs for Australia, Eurozone, the UK and the US 07/25/2023 German Ifo Business Climate, US Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing 07/26/2023 Australian CPI, US New Home Sales, FOMC monetary policy 07/27/2023 European Central Bank monetary policy; US Durable Goods … Continued

This is one of those really annoying – but unfortunately true – things about investing knowledge. Not everything we know, know absolutely, can be traded upon. Sometimes, obviously enough, that’s because we’re barred by law from trading on it. There’s a massive price difference between Polymetal (MCX: POLY) in Moscow and the quote that’s just … Continued

Echoes of early 2022 whisper across time into the wheat markets. What happens next? On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Or, more accurately, a war that has been raging since at least 2014 intensified. Putin’s failed attempt to take Kyiv within days would likely have had little effect on the commodities markets if he … Continued

In the last three weeks, there has been a decisive shift in the outlook for gold. A two-month corrective downtrend that drove a retreat in the price from $2072 to a low of $1892 (a near -9% correction) has now turned on its head. A rally has taken hold as two key intertwined factors have … Continued

There has been a significant shift in how markets now view the USD. The crucial data points of the past couple of weeks have put the dollar bulls massively on the back foot. A relatively weak Nonfarm Payrolls was followed by lower-than-expected inflation readings on US CPI and PPI. The selling pressure that has followed … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 07/17/2023 China GDP, Industrial Production & Retail Sales; US Empire State Manufacturing 07/18/2023 Canadian CPI inflation; US Retail Sales & Industrial Production; New Zealand CPI inflation 07/19/2023 UK CPI inflation; US Building Permits & Housing Starts 07/20/2023 Australian Unemployment; US Weekly … Continued

It’s been about a year since we were told that the US stock market really only rises at night. This is one of those things that shouldn’t really happen but then folk can be weird at times and it seems to be that this is in fact true. During normal trading hours the main US … Continued

It has been a while since I could say anything even remotely interesting about oil. However, oil has finally broken the shackles of a two-month trading range. The move has largely come on hope rather than anything more concrete in terms of the oil market. Hope that oil demand remains strong, and hope that a … Continued

US CPI inflation was expected to fall in June, but not to the extent that it has. The negative surprise is significantly impacting major markets. As traders react to what they see as the implications of the decline in inflation, an already corrective move in the USD is threatening to move into an accelerating tailspin. … Continued

FTSE 100 investing is infested with misconceptions and misunderstandings. Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of the common errors. As a freelance financial analyst, I spend much of my time covering the FTSE 100 — both the index and its popular constituent companies. FTSE 100 businesses all report their financial activities every quarter, creating masses of analytical … Continued

Since hitting a high of $2072 in May, the Gold futures have been on the slide. There are signs though, in recent sessions that this move may be starting to find a low. However, building support is one thing, building a rally is something else. I have taken a look at what is driving this … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 07/10/2023 China CPI & PPI 07/11/2023 UK Unemployment and wage growth; German ZEW Economic Sentiment 07/12/2023 Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy; US CPI; Bank of Canada monetary policy 07/13/2023 UK GDP (monthly); US PPI and Weekly Jobless Claims 07/14/2023 Michigan Sentiment (prelim)

The minutes of the June FOMC meeting did not tell us a huge amount that we already did not know. However, they do confirm the hawkish lean on the committee which leaves the Fed on a continued path of tightening despite the recent pause in rate hikes. The move higher seen in US Treasury yields … Continued

As US traders wearily return to their desks following their Independence Day celebrations there is a sense that consolidation is developing across USD major forex pairs. Views are becoming set that the Fed still has a likely one more rate hike to come this year before a prolonged pause. But if traders are settled in … Continued

Rainbow Rare Earths (LON: RBW) is a small cap (£50 million) London listed rare earths adventure. It looks like it’s actually going to work too, which is nice. But it’s also an excellent example of why we’re simply not going to run out of any particular metal or mineral that we’re interested in. We can … Continued

Brine, pegmatites, clay, spodumene, carbonate, hydroxide; these terms are quite simple to understand if you can spare five minutes. As an investor and analyst in battery metals, commodities, and equities, a very common question in my inbox is whether it is possible to invest directly into lithium. You can physically buy gold, silver, and copper; … Continued

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kicked off the July round of major central bank announcements with another pause in its monetary policy tightening. The guidance from the RBA suggests that there might yet be more tightening in the pipeline with data-dependent decisions to come. This topsy-turvy approach leaves AUD traders with a sense of … Continued

As we all know the lithium market – that “white gold” – is the new hot thing. So much so that we’ve microcaps like Western Yilgarn (ASX: WYX) rising 50% because people on the next property over found the right sort of rock that might have lithium in it. No, really. There’s a frenzy going … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 07/03/2023 Eurozone & UK Final Manufacturing PMI; US ISM Manufacturing, US Factory Orders 07/04/2023 Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy; US Independence Day holiday 07/05/2023 China Caixin Services PMI; OPEC meeting; FOMC meeting minutes 07/06/2023 ADP Employment Change, US Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Services 07/07/2023 … Continued

From Avacta to Cizzle, the UK small cap market boasts dozens of cancer-fighting shares. Read more to understand what these companies are doing to improve cancer care. As an avid analyst of high-risk, high-reward London-listed small cap shares, I tend to predominantly cover mining and biotech companies. This is to some extent a self-fulfilling prophecy; … Continued

Major currencies have seen fluctuating performance in recent months. USD performance has ebbed and flowed, with major currencies often reacting in line with swings in risk appetite. However, there is one currency that has failed to take part in these moves. That is the perennially underperforming Japanese yen. The record levels of weakness that the … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 06/26/2023 German Ifo Business Climate 06/27/2023 Canada CPI; US Durable Goods Orders, S&P/CS House Prices Index, US Consumer Confidence, US New Home Sales 06/28/2023 Australian CPI; central bank governors of the Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoE speak; 06/29/2023 US final GDP, Weekly Jobless Claims, Pending … Continued

The outlook for Gold futures has been teetering on the brink of correction in recent weeks. A hawkish-sounding Fed Chair Powell may have tipped the balance for a continued correction in the yellow metal. However, the big question is whether markets believe him. Fed Chair Powell sounds hawkish Last week’s FOMC decision for a “hawkish … Continued

With CPI inflation stubbornly high, Governor Andrew Bailey must choose the path of least damage. A recession is imminent. The Bank of England has two official objectives in its monetary policy remit: It has two key tools to perform its duties — setting the base rate and controlling the money supply. While it usually takes … Continued

It was not meant to be like this. Inflation in other countries is falling, but not in the UK. Once more, the CPI data from the Office of National Statistics has come in hot. UK CPI has come in much higher than expected as headline inflation did not fall, whilst core inflation increased sharply. The … Continued

The Australian dollar (AUD) has been one of the standout performers on major forex in recent weeks. However, it may now be time for a bit of a retracement. Profit-taking is setting in this morning as a double whammy of factors hit the AUD. A rate cut from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 19/06/2023 US public holiday (for Juneteenth) 20/06/2023 US Building Permits and Housing Starts 21/06/2023 UK CPI; Canadian Retail Sales; Jerome Powell Congressional testimony (House Financial Services Committee) 22/06/2023 Swiss National Bank monetary policy; Bank of England monetary policy; US Weekly Jobless … Continued

The Bank of Canada paused its rate hiking cycle in January but then hiked rates at its last meeting. The Royal Bank of Australia paused in April but then had to start hiking again in June. The Fed also paused at its June meeting or at least skipped a rate hike. This was the case … Continued

After being much touted in the previous meeting and successive hawkish rhetoric from ECB President Lagarde in recent weeks, the ECB has hiked its rates corridor by 25 basis points. That much was expected. However, this is still being seen as a hawkish hike amid a sharp increase in inflation projections. If this runs true, … Continued

Inflation continues to fall in the US. The CPI for May has shown that as the sharp jump in price over the first half of 2022 continues to drop out of the data, inflation is decisively falling. This disinflationary path leaves me questioning the Fed’s next move after the pause in the FOMC hikes in … Continued

UK economic growth is pretty anaemic. Headline inflation has only just dropped below double digits. Some would arguably point to the economy going through a period of stagflation. Despite this, the performance of GBP continues to stand up strongly against other major currencies. The Bank of England is having to prioritise inflation reduction in its … Continued

International Airline Group’s (LON:IAG) – or as we all still call it, BA – next results come out on 28th July. We’ve just had their Q1 results here. Things are obviously getting better, the recovery from Lockdown is happening. But what we really want to know is how far is that comeback going to go. … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 12/06/2023 N/A 13/06/2023 UK Unemployment and wage growth; German ZEW Economic Sentiment; US CPI 14/06/2023 UK monthly GDP; US PPI and Federal Reserve monetary policy 15/06/2023 Australian Unemployment; Chinese Industrial Production & Retail Sales; European Central Bank monetary policy; US Retail … Continued

With five major central banks giving monetary policy decisions in the first half of June, this is a period that could shape the outlook of forex markets for the weeks to come. There is a key theme that is emerging, with hawkish surprises coming from both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of … Continued

US equity markets have broken out to multi-month highs. The reasons to not be positive (or perhaps even outright bearish) are still prevalent. Yet, investors still seem happy to climb a wall of worry. Since October, the S&P 500 futures have rallied from a shade above 3500 to hit levels above 4300 this week. However, … Continued

Bidstack’s share price no longer comes close to representing the fundamentals. But investors will need patience. I last covered Bidstack (LON: BIDS) in mid-December 2022, hailing the video game advertising company as ‘one of the best undervalued tech stock opportunities to consider in 2023.’ As neither a mining company nor a biotech, BIDS is one … Continued

Gold has been corrective over the past month. This has come as the US dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields have rebounded. The two big factors that are historically so crucial the near to medium-term outlook for gold remain the key drivers right now. Subsequently, with the USD rally starting to falter, the corrective move … Continued

C3.ai (NYSE.AI) and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) are the two major stocks that people are using to bet on the AI revolution. As Paul Graham points out, this might not be the best set of possibilities: “AI is the first big new wave of technology we’ve had since start-ups started going public much later. The result … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 05/06/2023 S&P Global Services PMI global data and from US ISM Services PMI, US Factory Orders 06/06/2023 Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy 07/06/2023 Australian GDP; China Trade Balance; Bank of Canada monetary policy 08/06/2023 US Weekly Jobless Claims 09/06/2023 China … Continued

Darktrace (LON: DARK) has long had a rather fragile share price. In part this is simply because it’s something of a hot, go-go, stock and therefore any contrary news hits the price hard. When prices are based on dreams and assumptions about the future then anything that deflates the balloon hits hard. As we’ve noted … Continued

Eurozone inflation was lower than forecast in May. Core inflation fell to 5.3% in a move that saw two consecutive months of declines for the first time since mid-2021. With GDP faltering this will mean that the ECB will be more cautious in hiking rates aggressively from here. This is likely to weigh on the … Continued

Premier African Minerals has achieved something that few thought possible – brought a patch of bush into lithium concentrate production in under 8 months. That really is remarkable and they have indeed achieved that at the Zulu Project in Zimbabwe. They’ve also got a horrible, horrible, financial problem here. It is about, vaguely, possible that … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 29/05/2023 US Memorial Day and UK Spring bank Holiday, markets closed 30/05/2023 Eurozone Sentiment; US Consumer Confidence, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 31/05/2023 Japanese Retail Sales and Industrial Production; Chinese PMIs (official); German inflation; Canadian GDP; US JOLTS jobs openings 01/06/2023 Final … Continued

The AIM index has always been a poor performer. It’s the star players you need to keep an eye on. As a long-term investor in small cap FTSE AIM shares, I would say that sentiment on the UK’s growth index feels a tad negative. Maybe it’s just me? The index is down 17.3% over the … Continued

The Bank of England (BoE) is facing an ongoing battle against inflation. Despite interest rates having been aggressively hiked to 4.50% as headline inflation reached double digits, there is more work to be done. Today’s announcement of inflation for April suggests that the work could be considerable. The likely need for further rate hikes (yes, … Continued

PREM is just the latest example of why it’s so essential to read the details. Premier African Minerals (LON: PREM) pulled a little trick last week that should be used as the poster child for why we should always, but always, read the details. PREM had a rights issue. Well, nothing wrong in that, they’re … Continued

Gold has been a consistently solid investment over recent months. However, the shine is beginning to be taken off the performance. The drivers that have allowed gold to outperform other metals (that are deemed to be a higher risk) are starting to dissipate. This is leading to a retreat which could drag the gold price … Continued

MNK was up 435% on Friday – this is option-like price movement. Mallinckrodt (NYSEAmerican: MNK) jumped 435% on Friday. Which is the sort of price behaviour we expect from options, not from major corporations. The reason for the volatility – not for the price movement, the volatility – is that in effect MNK stock is … Continued

Oil rebounded yesterday as traders have taken progress in the talks over the US debt ceiling as a positive for market sentiment. This near-term boost may still have legs to run, but the path to sustainable upside looks restricted. There is a whole catalogue of mixed signals impacting the oil price right now, but for … Continued

The mechanics, the politics, McCarthy, and why it really is different this time. Every so often, the prospect of a US default rears its ugly head. The common wisdom is that the government will always push through some kind of ‘fudge,’ an unhappy middle ground that keeps the can kicking down the road. And usually, … Continued

This has been a tough period for metals prices in the commodities sector. As so often has been the case, there is a key link between the performance of the USD and that of metals prices. However, with risk appetite and the USD playing a role, this is also meaning that there is a safe … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 15/05/2023 Eurozone Industrial Production 16/05/2023 Chinese Industrial Production & Retail Sales; UK Unemployment; Eurozone Trade Balance; Eurozone GDP (2nd); German ZEW Economic Sentiment; Canadian Inflation; US Retail Sales & Industrial Production 17/05/2023 Japanese GDP (Q1 prelim) & Industrial Production; Eurozone HICP … Continued