The analysis of markets is a critical part of the trading decisions of any trader or investor. The individual trader or trading group may have a preference for: Macroeconomic Analysis, Microeconomics Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Behavioural Analysis, Quantitative Analysis and Technical Analysis. But whichever approach is employed, it is through this analysis that the trader decides:
In this section we provide daily, real time market views including currency pairs forecasts, primarily through the approach of Technical Analysis, but also by utilising other approaches to market analysis. Many of our analyses also contains a video explaining the analyses. Click here for all video analyses and here for all forex news.
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A more hawkish tone from global central banks with the Fed shifting more hawkish through January, on Thursday we saw the Bank of England and European Central Bank both signal a more hawkish tone. The Bank of England delivered a 25bp interest rate hike as anticipated, but the vote was close for … Continued
US Dollar Index posts major negative (DXY forecast) Euro signals major positive (EURUSD forecast) Uptrend over on Pound (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie posts fresh negative (AUDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments We got the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, statement and press conference on Wednesday and although markets moved initially to a “risk on” theme after the statement, the press conference saw a “risk off” shift, as, markets interpreted comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell as opening the door … Continued
US Dollar breaks up (DXY forecast) Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) Aussie breaks final major support Kiwi accelerates lower
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Increasing worries of global inflationary pressures and fears of even higher interest rates from the major Central Banks have seen a more aggressive shift to a “risk off” phase through mid-January. These concerns have been heightened by the threat of conflict as Russia continues to amass troops on the Ukrainian border. These … Continued
A quiet week sees Pound, Aussie and Kiwi retreat (GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD forecasts) The US Dollar Index reaches first upside target (DXY forecast) A major positive appears on EuroPound (EURGBP forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Ongoing concerns of global inflationary pressures have seen an erratic start to the year for global markets, seen again last week. The US CPI data for December showed a 7% rise over a year, the highest inflation rate since 1982! Although this was priced in, it continues to fuel inflationary and higher … Continued
US Dollar Index hits major support and posts positive (DXY forecast) Pound uptrend over (GBPUSD forecast) Negatives appear on Aussie and Kiwi (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) Dollar-CAD reverses (USDCAD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments 2022 kicked off with a continuation of the latter 2021 theme of rising concerns of global inflationary pressures. This saw a rise in not just US bond yields, but in global bond yields, particularly in the major, economic centres. This higher yield theme was reinforced by the release of the Minutes from … Continued
Negative on US Dollar Index needs conformation Pound holds monthly support Negatives on Aussie and Kiwi Uptrend on US Dollar-Yen ends
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Concerns that the Omicron strain of COVID-19 could contribute to supply chain disruptions and weigh on global economic growth have resurfaced over the past week. This has been driven by global medical institutions warnings of the more contagious aspect of Omicron the surging numbers of cases in many countries (for example the … Continued
WTI and Brent Includes an educational piece on how to use spreads to qualify futures
Major positive on US Dollar Index (DXY forecast) And a negative on Euro (EURUSD forecast) Both need to be confirmed
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Concerns that the Omicron strain of COVID-19 could contribute to supply chain disruptions and weigh on global economic growth have decreased over the past week. This has been due to positive sounding from vaccine providers and medical institutions regarding the efficacy of vaccines and that the variant could be less severe than … Continued
Aussie hits major final support and rallies strongly (AUDUSD forecast) Pound posts positive (EURUSD forecast) Euro-Pound reaches upside target (EURGBP forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Concerns that the omicron strain of COVID-19 could contribute to supply chain disruptions and weigh on global economic growth have impacted “riskier” assets. This has been intensified by relatively “hawkish” comments from Federal Chair Jerome Powell in testimony to Congress, indicating inflation worries and the potential to speed up the tapering of … Continued
Aussie Dollar reaches major downside target (AUDUSD forecast) Kiwi breaks down (NZDUSD forecast) Support rises on the Dollar Index (DXY forecast) Cable sits just above final weekly based support (GBPUSD forecast)
Fundamental factors EUR/USD ended last week with a steamrolling. This week, the pair keeps edging up. Why? First, the uncertainty over the new Covid-19 variant, omicron, led to a surge in demand in safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss. Since the US dollar lost its safe-haven role, traders preferred the EUR … Continued
US Dollar Index posts major negative (DXY forecast) Euro-Dollar a positive (EURUSD forecast) USD-JPY breaks down (USDJPY forecast) Aussie Dollar approaches major support (AUDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US Retail Sales data came in at 1.7% in October, its biggest gain since March, whilst September data was also revised higher. US Industrial Production for October also beat estimates. This has sustained the “risk on” theme, despite headwinds of higher inflation and rising COVID-19 rates in Europe. The high COVID-19 rates … Continued
US Dollar Index stars strong (DXY forecast) Euro remains vulnerable (EURUSD forecast) Euro-Pound breaks down (EURGBP forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout event last week was the US CPI data on Wednesday, which came in much higher than expected at 6.2% year-over-year, its highest level since 1990. This fuelled ongoing, underlying inflation concerns, seeing global stock indices setback (then bounce), whilst global bonds pushed to higher yields. Tesla saw a steep decline … Continued
US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast) Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) Partial profits in order on the Aussie (AUDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) met on Wednesday and as expected announced the start of tapering their monthly bond purchases by USD 15 billion later in November and December. However, the FOMC statement again highlighted an expectation for inflation to moderate and signalled no rush to tighten monetary policy. Markets … Continued
US Dollar Index stats at major resistance (DXY forecast) Pound threatens to breakdown (GBPUSD forecast) Major bear trap lies below on Euro-US Dollar (EURUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The busiest week of the US earnings season saw mixed earnings from Big Tech, with positives from Facebook, Microsoft and Google, and a positive announcement for Tesla, but significant misses from Apple, and Amazon. Further progress was seen on Biden’s proposed social infrastructure bill Despite losses after the Apple and Amazon releases, … Continued
Major positive on the US Dollar Index, but needs confirmation (DXY forecast) Negative on Euro-US Dollar (again, needing confirmation, EURUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Earnings season continued in the US last week, with positive earnings surprises across sectors, reinforcing solid results from the financial sector the prior week. But Snapchat parent Snap did disappoint on Friday, dragging the tech sector and Nasdaq lower to end the week. Fiscal stimulus hopes also helped the “risk on” theme … Continued
Negatives appear on Cable (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie and Kiwi also post negatives (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) US Dollar-Yen uptrend ends (USDJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Although the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday did indicate that bond purchase tapering is likely to begin before the end of 2021, the minutes also revealed that Fed officials are currently looking to keep interest rates at or near zero for the next couple of years. Data has suggested that both supply … Continued
US Dollar Index remains trapped (DXY forecast) Euro-Dollar posts rare positive pattern (EURUSD forecast) US Dollar-Yen accelerates up (USDJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Positive soundings on the US debt ceiling talks have helped riskier assets (such as stocks/ equities) in early October. The “risk off” theme that struck global financial markets in September has started to reverse back to a “risk on” theme, despite the extension to higher yields across global bond markets (led by … Continued
US Dollar Index goes sideways (DXY forecast) Euro-Dollar has major support below (EURUSD forecast) US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast) Positive appears on Euro-Pound ahead of major support (EURGBP forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The “risk off” theme that had struck global financial markets earlier in September resumed into month-end as inflation concerns returned, alongside higher yield pressures. Global stock indices reversed previous recovery rebounds, looking technically vulnerable. Debt ceiling and stimulus uncertainty are also weighing on riskier assets. Although the federal government passed a short-term … Continued
The US Dollar Index stalled in a major resistance zone and posts negative meaning profits taken on long positions. US Dollar-Yen posts false breakout up and builds reversal
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The “risk off” mode that has gripped global financial markets in September due to growth and inflation concerns was intensified early last week with Evergrande contagion worries. However, these contagions fears have eased through the week, as have the growth and inflation worries, which have seen global stock indices post robust recovery … Continued
Aussie holds support (AUDUSD forecast) A negative on USD-CAD (USDCAD forecast) A major “Bear Trap” lies below on the Euro-Dollar (EURUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Ongoing growth and inflation concerns have left global financial markets in “risk off” mode, and still vulnerable to further erratic, “risk off” moves. Growth concerns have been sparked by three main factors: ongoing supply chain worries fuelling inflation fears Inflation worries putting the spotlight on Central Banks and in particular the Fed … Continued
US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast) Euro breaks down, but futures has a major support nearby (EURUSD forecast) Aussie drifts down (AUDUSD forecast) Dollar-CAD breaks up (USDCAD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The ongoing global spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant and the concerns regarding the new Mu variant, have impacted on growth expectations. In addition, ongoing supply chain worries have continued to fuel inflation fears and accentuate growth concerns. These factors leave global financial markets vulnerable to erratic, “risk off” moves. On Thursday … Continued
US Dollar send positive signal (DXY forecast) Euro signals negative (EURUSD forecast) Aussie negative statement (AUDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout economic event last week was the August US Employment report on Friday, which was disappointing, the headline Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data missed expectations, posting at 235K, with 750K expected. Prior monthly gains were revised higher though, whilst the Unemployment Rate fell to a pandemic-era low at 5.2%. Global Purchasing Managers … Continued
Euro stalls ahead of major upside target US Dollar Index major support looms below Kiwi reaches next upside target
Reversals in Aussie and Kiwi (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) NZDUSD is still below its breakdown point having signalled a false breakdown
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout economic event last week was the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, but it ended up as a non-event, as Fed Chair Powell did not signal anything different than previously communicated with respect to removing policy accommodation. The chaos, unrest and terrorist activity in Afghanistan has had muted impact on global … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout event last week was the Fed Minutes which showed increasing talk of tapering Bond purchases later this year. The data even last week were the US Retail Sales numbers which fell 1.1% in July (though June data was revised higher). Chinese stocks remain under pressures with the ongoing regulatory clampdown … Continued
Pound, Aussie and Kiwi break down (GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD forecasts) Dollar Cad breaks up and hits major upside target (USDCAD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout event in a light data week was the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with the ex-Food & Energy number coming in at 0.3%, below consensus estimates. On the fiscal side, the US Senate passed the infrastructure spending bill, approximately USD 1 trillion with about USD 560 billion of new … Continued
Negative USD signal (DXY forecast) Positive on Euro (EURUSD forecast) Pound holds support (GBPUSD forecast) So does Euro-Pound (EURGBP forecast)
US Dollar holds support (DXY forecast) Negatives appear on Pound and Aussie (GBPUSD and AUDUSD forecast) Yen holds support and reaches first upside target (USDJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout event in the week was Friday’s strong US Employment report, with 943K jobs added in June, notably above consensus estimates. Thursday saw the Bank of England Meeting and a slightly more hawkish tone stating that “some modest tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period is likely to be necessary”. … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A regulatory crackdown by Chinese authorities on large internet stocks saw Chinese share indices plunge and also saw some delayed and limited contagion effect on global stock averages. We got the Fed decision on Wednesday last week, with a slightly more hawkish tone in the statement, but a slightly more dovish tone … Continued
Positive on the US Dollar (DXY forecast) Negative on Pound (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie threatens to break down (AUDUSD forecast)
Plus an Aussie reversal (AUDUSD forecast) Kiwi holds support (NZDUSD forecast) Pound returns to the breakdown point (GBPUSD forecast)
Euro negative threat (EURUSD forecast) US Dollar Index close to key resistance (DXY forecast) Pound breaks lower (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie posts negative with no support (AUDUSD forecast) US Dollar-CAD breaks up (USDCAD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial markets reacted to ongoing fears of more hawkish monetary policy in the US, alongside concerns around the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant globally. As we will look at below, this is sent global bond markets higher (to lower yields, led by the US), whilst world stock averages sold off … Continued
Euro posts major positives against the US Dollar and on the cross rates (EURUSD, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURGBP forecast) Positive on Pound (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie and Kiwi hold major support (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) US Dollar-CAD posts fresh negative (USDCAD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for June mostly beat expectations on Thursday 1st July, both from Markit for many major economies and from the US Institute of Supply Managers (ISM), with the Manufacturing PMI coming in at 60.6%, beating consensus for a 13th straight month above 50.0%. The US Employment report … Continued
Dollar Index posts negative (DXY forecast) Euro positive after holding key support (EURUSD forecast) Pound posts positive at support (GBPUSD forecast) Kiwi holds major weekly and monthly support (NZDUSD forecast)
Crude oil has recovered all the lost ground of 2020 The global market is in deficit OPEC+ is ready to increase supply whilst shattering the current price structure Look for the market to test the localised high of October 2018 “…Give me one more oil boom before I die …..Give me one more chance to say … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Last week, global financial markets were still digesting the big event of the prior week with the US Federal Reserve signalling a more hawkish tone than the financial markets had anticipated. Fed officials this past week have sought to calm markets and allay fears that they were about to start to tighten … Continued
US Dollar support focus (DXY forecast) Pound send positive signal, but resistance above (GBPUSD forecast) Positives also on Aussie and Kiwi, but still see resistances (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) Negatives on US Dollar-CAD signals end of uptrend (USDCAD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The big event of the past week was US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision and statement on Wednesday. The FOMC dot plot chart at least two quarter-point rate increases in 2023. This was a more hawkish tone than the US and global financial markets had anticipated, causing significant price … Continued
Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) Pound support disappears (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie breaks down and Kiwi closes below major support (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) US Dollar-CAD breaks up (USDCAD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US CPI data was higher than expectations, with the headline data posting at 5% year-on-year for May, at its fastest pace since August 2008, with the core rate at 3.8%, its highest for nearly three decades. But Bond markets and stock indices shrugged off this data, with moves to lower yields and … Continued
Caterpillar has endured a torrid week The long-standing impulsive channel is under threat The company is looking to pay a larger dividend Look for the market to start buying this stock as the week wears on Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) ended the week in poor form as it closed down by 5.03, or 2.23% to print … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Another quiet week in financial markets up until Friday, despite a busy data calendar. Markets kicked into life after Friday’s US Employment report, which saw 559K jobs added in May, which was slightly worse than expectations. Over the weekend, the G7 agreed a global minimum corporate tax of 15%. Global financial market … Continued
Dollar Index holds key weekly support Key support rises on the Euro Negative appears on Dollar Yen Negative also seen on Pound. Tug of war in Dollar-CAD, awaiting the breakout.
The deal for LVMH to fully acquire Tiffany was completed in January The market for luxury goods was under pressure throughout 2020 The sentiment over sales performance in 2021 is much improved LVMH SE has enjoyed a good run; there is more to come Looking back to January, the decision by LVMH SE, the world’s … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A quiet week in financial markets with muted central bank activity and a relatively light data calendar. The standout on Wednesday was a more hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). This helped the New Zealand Dollar post firm gains across the Forex board. Cryptocurrencies remained volatile, with Bitcoin … Continued
Positives appear on US Dollar-Yen (USDJPY forecast) Negative signalled on Aussie (AUDUSD forecast) Dollar-CAD posts extremely rare positives! (USDCAD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Inflation concerns remain, after the recent spike in US CPI data. The Fed Minutes on Wednesday highlighted an improving US economy but still far from the Fed’s goals, this did not have a significant impact on global financial markets. Tensions in Gaza have eased with an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced. The Indian COVID … Continued
Dollar Index repeatedly holds final critical support (DXY forecast) Negative on Dollar-Yen (USDJPY forecast) And on Kiwi (NZDUSD forecast) These need to be confirmed by a breakdown through support
The top question right now is “What is the outlook for inflation?” The expectation is for higher prices in both the U.S. and U.K. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI data for May, out this week looks set to turn lower Look for the proof of higher lows on Monday as a reason to plug into cable … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The US Consumer Price Index released on Wednesday came in at 4.2% from a year ago and 0.8% from March, significantly higher than expected. This data heightened US and wider inflation concerns, which had already spooked Big Tech stocks through mid-May, pulling broader equity indices lower. Tensions in Israel have had little … Continued
US Dollar fails at key resistance Euro holds support Aussie and Kiwi need to confirm fresh negatives
Dollar Index fails to confirm bullish signal and then breaks down Euro holds support and breaks up Positives on Aussie and Kiwi US Dollar-CAD accelerates lower
Copper has been moving higher since November 1 The research whilst mixed, has a bullish bias The need for infrastructure rebuilding and electrification of the auto space bodes well Look for prices to test U.S. Dollars 3.62/lb “… Even the old folks never knew Why they call it like they do I was wondering … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US President Biden announced his $1.8 trillion American Families Plan (human infrastructure) to complement the $2 trillion infrastructure plan announced at the end of March. Earnings season has continued with more positives, with Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook and Tesla all beating estimates (though the price action on these stocks has not been … Continued
Major sell on Euro (EURUSD forecast) Negative on Pound (GBPUSD forecast) Major support on Aussie switches to resistance (AUDUSD forecast) US Dollar-Canadian Dollar breaks down (USDCAD forecast)
SPAC issuance value almost matched IPO’s Listing process needs sensible and firm regulation Investors must evaluate each prospectus fully Collateralized SPAC funds of funds could arise What Is a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)? A special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) is a company with no commercial operations that is formed specifically to raise capital through … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US President Biden announced a potentially significant increase in Capital Gains Tax (CGT) rates, which had a negative impact on US (and global) risk assets. Earnings season has continued with mostly positives, though Netflix missed the expectations of analysts on new subscribers, which was a broader negative for new media/ big tech. … Continued
US Dollar Index breaks down (DXY forecast) Euro breaks up (EURUSD forecast)
Dollar Index negative signal (DXY forecast) Pound posts positives (GBPUSD forecast) Euro-Pound Reversing (EURGBP forecast)
In the past year “Risk On” assets have been in favour The past path of gold has not looked appealing, nut now that is changing The economic path to recovery is improving as are inflation prospects There is a case to open a speculative long on gold as the technicals look encouraging In times of … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US Retail Sales data for March came in extremely strong on Thursday, beating expectation with a rise of 9.8% MoM. Earnings season has kicked off in earnest in the US, with the Banks and Financials leading the way, in most instances beating expectations. The European vaccine rollout has improved, although it still … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments On the Central Bank side last week, we had the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes released on Wednesday and Fed Chairman Powell spoke on Thursday. The FOMC Meeting Minutes and speech by Powell simply reiterated a still ongoing dovish stance. This has seen US yields retreat from multi-year yield highs … Continued
A quiet week sees the US Dollar retreat to first support (DXY forecast) The Euro reaches its upside target (EURUSD forecast) Major reversal on Euro-Pound (EURGBP forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The global Market and US Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reports were out on Thursday and were broadly better than expected. The US Employment report for March was released on Friday and the Non-Farm Payroll data far exceeded the anticipated number of 675K, posting at 916K, whilst … Continued
Minor positive appears on Euro (EURUSD forecast) Dollar-Yen continues to outperform (USDJPY forecast) Small positive appear on Aussie and Kiwi and negative on USDCAD (AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts)
Non-Farm Payrolls booked the best gain in seven-months The contrast in vaccine strategy and stimulus spending between the U.S and Europe is striking The economic paths of the U.S. cf. Eurozone and Japan are diverging The Dollar Index is set to rotate higher in an impulsive channel It is an odd fact that Good Friday … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments In various speaking engagements this past week Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated the US Central Bank’s dovish stance. This saw US yields (and global bonds) move back modestly to lower yield territory (from recent high yield extremes). The German Ifo business climate index for March posted at to 96.6 from 92.7 … Continued
Dollar Index and Dollar-Yen break up (DXY and USDJPY forecasts) Aussie and Kiwi post positives (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) EuroPound close to restarting the downtrend (EURGBP forecast)
EURGBP is in a corrective channel The contrast in vaccine strategy between the U.K and Europe is striking The Eurozone economy is heading toward another recession Sterling is going to continue its outperformance If one looks at the One-Month chart, shown below in Figure 1, one can see the spot price of EURGBP has shown … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The focus this past week was on the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, statement and press conference, with a still very dovish stance emphasised again. However, a slight shift in the dot plot chart towards a possibly earlier than expected rate hike in 2022 from some members eventually … Continued
A very quiet week sees resistance drop on the Dollar Index and lowers the breakout point (DXY forecast) Positive appears on Dollar-CAD (USDCAD forecast) A major buy signal appears on Euro-Pound (EURGBP forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments President Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill was passed into law this week. A lower-than-expected US CPI report on Wednesday calmed inflationary worries and built on the strong US jobs report from the prior week. This sent value stocks surging higher and allowed for a rebound in growth stocks, which continue to … Continued
Dollar reverses (DXY forecast) Euro posts positive along with Pound (EURUSD and GBPUSD forecasts) Kiwi holds support and Dollar-CAD close to breaking down (NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Another relatively quiet week for global financial markets from a macroeconomic and geopolitical perspective, but as at the end of February price action across the major asset classes was still volatile. The ongoing development last week was the continuing surge in global yields, particularly in the US and notably at the longer … Continued
Dollar Index break up (DXY forecast) Euro reaches first downside target (EURUSD forecast) Kiwi also hits support target (NZDUSD forecast)