A big week ahead to start 2025

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments

• Despite a subdued finish, 2024 was a remarkable year for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow achieving substantial gains driven by AI enthusiasm, economic resilience, and favorable policy shifts, while Bitcoin surged over 100%, breaking the $100,000 mark.

• The first week of 2025 saw mixed performances across global markets, with U.S. indices recovering losses on Friday after a volatile start, while international markets showed varied results.
• Markets face a packed week featuring the Federal Reserve’s December Meeting Minutes, a Thursday closure for a US National Day of Mourning, and Friday’s crucial U.S. jobs report, which could influence 2025’s economic and monetary outlook.

Global financial market developments

• US and global equity averages started 2025 mixed, dipping and bouncing
• US bonds were little changed on the week, but European bonds moved to higher yields
• The US Dollar Index extended 2024 gains, to a multi-year high.
• Gold futures rallied slightly.
• Oil futures broke out from a multi-month consolidation to a multi-month high.

Key this week

Central Bank Watch: The main central bank activity this week is the US Federal Open Market Committee Minutes on Wednesday.

Geopolitical Watch: US markets will be closed on Thursday in honor of former U.S. President Jimmy Carter.

Macro Data Watch: The main macro data release this week is the US Employment Report on Friday. Some other releases of note are the US Factory Orders on Monday, Global Composite and Service PMI on Monday and Tuesday and EU, German and Chinese CPI throughout the week.

Steve Miley (The Market Chartist)

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued