Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- U.S. and global markets surged as growth stocks outperformed value, sector gains were led by technology and consumer shares, and optimism was fueled by easing geopolitical concerns and robust economic growth projections.
- Political crises in France, where Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government collapsed, and South Korea, with the swift imposition and withdrawal of martial law, unsettled local markets but had minimal impact on resilient US equities, supported by strong domestic economic fundamentals.
- The U.S. added 227,000 jobs in November, surpassing expectations and rebounding strongly from October’s storm- and strike-impacted figures, while the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, signaling economic resilience amid lingering uncertainties.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious remarks emphasized economic resilience while signaling room for deliberation on a likely December rate cut, as markets await key inflation data to shape the central bank’s final decision for the year.
- November’s U.S. CPI report on Wednesday, expected to show a slight uptick to 2.7% for headline inflation and steady core inflation at 3.3%, will be pivotal for Federal Reserve rate decisions, potentially altering expectations for a December rate cut.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages extended higher, US averages hitting new records
- US bonds moved to lower yields, whilst European bond were little changed
- The US Dollar Index marked time, with a modest correction lower
- Gold futures stayed in consolidation mode
- Oil futures stayed in consolidation, but at the lower end of the multi-month range
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: A busy week for central banks, with the Reverse Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Rate Statement on Tuesday, then the equivalent from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday and from the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday.
Macro Data Watch: The main macro data release this week is the US CPI on Wednesday followed by US PPI Thursday. Some other releases of note are the Chinese and German CPI on Monday and Tuesday respectively and UK GDP on Friday.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 12/09/2024 | Japanese GDP; Chinese CPI and PPI |
| 12/10/2024 | Chinese Trade Report; RBA Interest Rate Decision and Rate Statement; German CPI |
| 12/11/2024 | US CPI; BoC Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement |
| 12/12/2024 | ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Deposit Facility Rate; US PPI |
| 12/13/2024 | UK GDP, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, plus Consumer Confidence; EU Consumer Confidence |
