Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- U.S. and global stock markets declined amid trade tensions, regulatory uncertainty, and tech sector weakness, with the Nasdaq down 3.5% for the week, the S&P 500 slipping 1%, and bond yields falling as investors shifted to safe-haven assets.
- Despite reporting a 78% surge in revenue and strong AI-driven growth, Nvidia’s stock fell 8.5% as investors reacted to slowing growth momentum, lower-than-expected profitability, and broader market concerns.
- Investor concerns deepened as President Trump reaffirmed sweeping tariff plans on Canada, Mexico, China, and the EU while escalating geopolitical tensions with Ukraine by clashing publicly with President Zelenskyy over a potential minerals deal and pressuring Kyiv to make concessions to Russia, adding to market volatility.
- The core PCE price index rose 2.6% year-over-year in January, aligning with expectations but remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, while slowing consumer spending, declining Treasury yields, and weakening consumer confidence suggest ongoing economic uncertainty despite inflation trending downward.
- Markets remain volatile as geopolitical tensions, Trump’s new tariffs, and his clash with Ukraine’s Zelenskyy add uncertainty, while investors await the ECB’s rate decision, US jobs data, and global PMI figures to gauge economic momentum.
Global financial market developments
- US and Asian equity averages were mostly lower, with European indices mixed.
- US and European bond yields were notably lower on the week.
- The US Dollar Index staged modest weekly gains.
- Gold futures sold off from a record high.
- Oil futures pushed slightly lower in price.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: The main central bank activities this week are the Reverse Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes on Tuesday and the European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement on Thursday.
Macro Data Watch: The main macro data releases this week are the Global PMI data on Monday and Wednesday and the US Jobs Report on Friday. Some other releases of note are the EU CPI on Monday, US Factory Orders on Wednesday and EU GDP on Friday.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 03/03/2025 | Global Manufacturing PMI; EU CPI |
| 03/04/2025 | RBA Meeting Minutes; Japanese and EU Unemployment Rates |
| 03/05/2025 | Global Composite and Service PMI; EU PPI; US Factory Orders |
| 03/06/2025 | EU Retail Sales; ECB Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement |
| 03/07/2025 | Chinese Trade Report; German Factory Orders; EU GDP; US and Canadian Jobs Reports |
