Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- Global stock markets plunged as the U.S. imposed sweeping tariffs, triggering sharp declines in major indexes, heightened fears of economic slowdown, and retaliatory measures from key trading partners, while investors fled to safer assets amid uncertainty over inflation and Federal Reserve policy.
- The escalating U.S.-China trade war, triggered by President Trump’s sweeping tariffs and China’s swift retaliation, has fueled global market turmoil, heightened inflation risks, and raised fears of slower economic growth, with policymakers and investors bracing for prolonged uncertainty.
- The U.S. added 228,000 jobs in March, surpassing forecasts and reflecting labor market resilience, though slowing wage growth and rising trade tensions raise concerns about future stability.
- Markets face another volatile week as Trump’s tariffs take effect, with investors watching for potential trade deals, Federal Reserve meeting minutes for economic insights, US CPI inflation data for signs of pricing pressures, and the start of earnings season, led by major banks, to assess the broader economic impact.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages plunged still lower.
- US and European bond yields were notably lower on the week
- The US Dollar Index sold off to a multi-month low.
- Gold futures sold off from a new all time high..
- Oil futures plunged to a multi-month low.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: The main central bank activity this week is the Federal Open Market Committee Minutes on Wednesday.
Macro Data Watch: The main macro data release this week is the US CPI data on Thursday. Some other releases of note are the Chinese CPI data on Thursday, UK GDP data on Friday and US PPI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment data also on Friday.
Earnings Watch: The US 2025 Q1 earning season kicks off this week with the major banks and financials, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock reporting on Friday.
