Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- A quiet week for markets in the Thanksgiving holiday shortened week, with low volatility and limited price movement.
- FOMC minutes highlight patient Fed, unanimously advocating for a strategy of proceeding carefully regarding future interest rate moves.
- US Flash PMI data slightly disappoints and shows an employment decline for the first time since June 2020.
- Nvidia earnings figures surpass expectations, but stock price stalls due to export restrictions affecting sales to organisations in China.
- OPEC+ meeting delayed due to a dispute over African members’ output quotas, with traders awaiting a resolution on quotas.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity index futures consolidated and even nudged higher, building on the November surge, staying fully in bull mode.
- US and global yields also consolidated the significant lower yield moves seen in November, with USTs hovering near multi-week yield lows.
- The US Dollar Index was in negative consolidation mode, sustaining weakness from November losses and still and fully in bear mode.
- Gold futures rallied further having previously reversed early November losses and are still aiming back towards multi-month highs.
- Oil futures rebounded and failed back lower last week having previously sold off through notable supports in Q4, sustaining bearish forces.
Key this week
- Geopolitical Events: The delayed OPEC+ meeting is now due to take place on Thursday.
- Central Bank Watch: We get the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision, statement and press conference on Tuesday and Fed Chair Powell speaks late Friday.
- Macro Data Watch: A flurry of EU and German data Wednesday and Thursday, US GDP is out Wednesday too, and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure US PCE (MoM and YoY) is also released Thursday. Friday brings global PMI from S&P Global and US ISM PMI data.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 11/27/2023 | Nothing of note |
| 11/28/2023 | RBNZ interest rate decision, statement and press conference |
| 11/29/2023 | EU Consumer Confidence; German CPI; US GDP and PCE (QoQ) |
| 11/30/2023 | Chinese PMI; German Retail Sales; German Unemployment; EU CPI; US PCE (MoM and YoY); Canadian GDP; OPEC+ Meeting |
| 12/01/2023 | Global PMI from S&P Global; US ISM PMI; Fed Chair Powell speaks |
