Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- The “risk off” mode that has gripped global financial markets in September due to growth and inflation concerns was intensified early last week with Evergrande contagion worries.
- However, these contagions fears have eased through the week, as have the growth and inflation worries, which have seen global stock indices post robust recovery rebounds.
- The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in their interest rate decision, statement and press conference on Wednesday indicated that tapering of Bond purchases is on the agenda with interest rate markets anticipating this to possibly start this year, with a potential first rate hike in 2022.
Global financial market developments
- Global shares indices saw strong rebound after significant September setbacks from recovery/ record peaks.
- US Bonds moved to higher yields in reaction to the slightly more hawkish tone from the Fed.
- The US Dollar once again rallied with the higher US yields.
- EURUSD fell further with the US Dollar gains and GBPUSD remains vulnerable.
- Gold fell again (with the firm US Dollar).
- Oil further extended its strong advance from August.
- Copper is caught in a sideways range.
Key this week
- Geopolitics:
- Still monitoring the impact of the global spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant.
- Checking for possible new national lockdown restrictions or for further easing of lockdowns.
- Central Bank Watch: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Meeting Minutes are released on Tuesday.
- Macroeconomic data: The data standouts this week are UK and US GDP, plus EU and German CPI, all published on Thursday, and of particular note the global Markit and US ISM Manufacturing PMIs released on Friday.
| Date | Key Macroeconomic Events |
| 27/09/21 | US Durable Goods Orders |
| 28/09/21 | Bank of Japan (BoJ) Meeting Minutes; Australian Retail Sales |
| 29/09/21 | Nothing of note |
| 30/09/21 | China PMI; UK GDP; German Unemployment; EU CPI; German CPI; US GDP and PCE |
| 01/10/21 | Japan Tankan report; German Retails Sales; global Markit Manufacturing PMI; US ISM Manufacturing PMI |
