Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- S&P 500 hit a new 2023 high on Friday with US stock indices in positive consolidation since Thanksgiving.
- Services PMI beat expectations. The European S&P Global composite PMI was adjusted upward to 47.6, marking its highest level since July and above consensus expectation of 47.1. US ISM Services PMI surpassed expectations of 52, coming in at 52.7 percent.
- The US Employment Report showed the US added 199,000 jobs, lowering the unemployment rate to 3.7%, indicating a potential “soft landing” for the economy.
- University of Michigan Survey shows cooling inflation, with a substantial decline in the one-year inflation outlook to 3.1%, the lowest since March 2021. Consumer sentiment jumped, reflected in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, reaching 69.4 from October’s 61.3, tied for the best level since July.
- ECB dovish pivot anticipation after Schnabel, typically a hawk, changed her stance, influenced by unexpectedly mild inflation readings.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity index futures pushed higher, building on the November surge, staying fully in bull mode.
- European yields saw significant lower yield moves to multi-month yield lows, US yields moved lower at the longer end of the curve, before retracing Friday.
- The US Dollar Index corrected higher but stays in a bigger bear mode.
- Gold futures spiked to an all-time high, before faltering.
- Oil futures pushed to new lows, sustaining bearish forces.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: Four major central banks in play this week, with the main focus on the Fed decision Wednesday, then we get decisions from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) all on Thursday.
Macro Data Watch: Key data to watch from the US this week is Tuesday’s release of CPI and Thursday’s Retails Sales. Friday brings global Composite, Services and Manufacturing Flash PMI from S&P Global.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 12/11/2023 | Nothing of note |
| 12/12/2023 | UK Employment report; EU and German ZEW Economic Sentiment Surveys; US CPI |
| 12/13/2023 | Japanese Tankan Survey; UK GDP and Manufacturing data; EU Industrial Production; US PPI data; FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement, Projections and press conference |
| 12/14/2023 | Australian Employment report; SNB, BoE, ECB Decisions, Monetary Policy Statements and Press Conferences; US Retail Sales |
| 12/15/2023 | China Industrial Production and Retail Sales; global Composite, Services and Manufacturing Flash PMI from S&P Global |
