Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- U.S. stocks rebounded strongly this week, with the Dow hitting a record high and broader gains driven by a rotation from tech into industrials and consumer discretionary sectors, while small-cap stocks and Bitcoin outperformed amid easing Federal Reserve concerns and geopolitical uncertainties.
- Nvidia’s Q3 results surpassed expectations with $35.1 billion in revenue and $0.81 EPS driven by AI demand, but shares fell 3.2% as supply concerns and slowing revenue growth tempered enthusiasm for its modestly higher Q4 forecast.
- Global PMI data revealed contrasting trends as Europe and the UK slipped into contraction with declining composite PMI readings, while the U.S. outperformed, posting its highest PMI level since April 2022, driven by robust service sector growth.
- U.S. markets will experience lighter activity during the Thanksgiving holiday-shortened week, with key economic reports like the PCE Price Index, GDP revisions, and Fed meeting minutes potentially influencing volatility amid debates over future interest rate policy.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages extended higher.
- US and European bonds were little changed on the week, slightly lower in yield.
- The US Dollar Index rallied to a new multi-year high.
- Gold futures rallied, back close to the all time high.
- Oil futures pushed towards the upper end of a broad, multi-month range.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: The main central bank activity this week is the US FOMC Minutes on Tuesday.
Macro Data Watch: The main macro data release this week is the US PCE on Wednesday. Other releases of note are the US Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, US GDP on Wednesday and EU CPI on Friday.
Holiday Watch: The Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, November 28 will see U.S. equity and bond markets closed and reopen for a shortened session on Friday. Futures markets will also follow shortened sessions on Thursday and Friday
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 11/25/2024 | German IFO |
| 11/26/2024 | US FOMC Minutes; US Consumer Confidence |
| 11/27/2024 | Australian CPI; US PCE, GDP, Durable Goods Order, Personal Income and Spending |
| 11/28/2024 | EU Consumer Confidence; German CPI; US Thanksgiving holiday |
| 11/29/2024 | Japanese CPI and Retail Trade; German Retail Sales and Unemployment; EU CPI; Canadian GDP; US Thanksgiving partial holiday |
