Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- U.S. stock markets continued to rebound strongly, driven by tech gains, while Treasury yields fell, the U.S. dollar weakened, and gold surged to a record high of $2,570 per ounce amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
- The U.S. CPI report for August showed inflation largely in line with expectations, supporting a likely quarter-point Fed rate cut.
- Growing expectations suggest the U.S. Federal Reserve may opt for a 50 basis point rate cut during its September 17-18 meeting, driven by slowing labour market growth and cooling inflation, though a 25 basis point cut remains more likely.
- The ECB lowered its deposit rate to 3.5% as anticipated last week, while the Bank of England is expected to keep its rate at 5% in its upcoming meeting due to ongoing high services inflation and wage growth concerns.
Global financial market developments
- Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages extended significantly higher
- US and European bond moved to lower yields on the week
- The US Dollar Index weakened again, towards multi-month lows.
- Gold futures rallied, to a new all time high.
- Oil futures hit another new multi-year low, before bouncing.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: The main central bank activity this week is the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement on Wednesday and the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report on Thursday. Some other activities of note are the Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report and the People’s Bank of China Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement on Friday.
Macro Data Watch: The main macro data release this week is the US Retail Sales and Industrial Production on Tuesday, UK and EU inflation data (including CPI) on Wednesday and UK Retail Sales on Friday.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 09/16/2024 | Nothing of note |
| 09/17/2024 | EU, German ZEW Survey; Canadian CPI; US Retail Sales, Industrial Production |
| 09/18/2024 | Japanese Trade Report; UK inflation including CPII; EU CPI; Fed Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement |
| 09/19/2024 | BoE Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Report, Minutes |
| 09/20/2024 | Japanese CPI; BoJ Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement; PBoC Interest Rate Decision; UK Retail Sales; Canadian Retail Sales |
