Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- U.S. equities declined amid tariff concerns and mixed earnings, while global markets rallied and Treasury yields eased, offering some relief in a shortened trading week.
- Shares of major U.S. chipmakers tumbled after the White House imposed new export curbs on advanced semiconductors to China, intensifying trade tensions and prompting concerns over lost revenue and growing competition from China’s domestic tech sector.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that larger-than-expected tariff hikes are likely to result in persistent inflation and slower economic growth, prompting the Fed to hold interest rates steady amid heightened uncertainty and weakening business sentiment.
- Retail sales surged 1.4% in March—driven by auto purchases—as consumers rushed to buy ahead of impending tariffs, though analysts warn the boost may prove temporary amid trade uncertainty.
- The ECB lowered its deposit rate to 2.25% amid slowing growth and trade tensions, signaling a cautious, data-driven approach and leaving the door open for further cuts if economic conditions deteriorate.
- Investors face a pivotal week as Tesla, Alphabet, Intel, and Boeing report earnings amid heightened trade tensions, ongoing AI investment scrutiny, and key economic data releases that may shed light on the broader impact of recent U.S. tariff policies.
Global financial market developments
- US equity averages were lower, whilst European and Asian indices gained.
- US and European bond yields were lower on the week
- The US Dollar Index also marked time in consolidation mode, at multi-month lows.
- Gold futures rallied to another new all time high.
- Oil futures rebounded further from an April multi-month low.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: The main central bank activity this week is the People’s Bank of China Interest Rate Decision on Monday.
Macro Data Watch: The main macro data released this coming week are the Global Flash PMI data on Wednesday. Some other releases of note are the US Durable Goods Orders on Thursday, plus UK Retail Sales and Japanese CPI both on Friday.
Earnings Watch: The main US 2025 Q1 earnings releases this week are Tesla on Tuesday, Alphabet and P&G both on Thursday.
See next page for macro and earnings data schedule.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 04/21/2025 | PBoC Interest Rate Decision |
| 04/22/2025 | EU Consumer Confidence |
| 04/23/2025 | Global Flash PMI |
| 04/24/2025 | US Durable Goods Orders |
| 04/25/2025 | UK Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence; Japanese CPI; Canadian Retail Sales; US Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectation Index |
| Date | Major Earnings Data |
| 04/21/2025 | Nothing of note |
| 04/22/2025 | Tesla; GE Aerospace; Verizon; Intuitive Surgical; Rtx Corp |
| 04/23/2025 | Philip Morris; IBM; AT&T; Thermo Fisher Scientific; ServiceNow Inc; Boeing |
| 04/24/2025 | Alphabet; P&G; T-Mobile; Merck&Co; PepsiCo |
| 04/25/2025 | AbbVie |