Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- Despite a strong rebound on Friday, U.S. stocks posted another week of losses, as investor concerns over trade uncertainty, economic growth, and Federal Reserve policy kept markets volatile.
- U.S. stock markets extended their losses as recession concerns grew, with investor sentiment rattled by Trump’s escalating tariffs, declining consumer confidence, and rising costs, prompting economists to warn of increased economic instability.
- Ongoing ceasefire negotiations between the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia face uncertainty as diplomatic efforts gain traction but are met with skepticism, while continued Russian military aggression keeps geopolitical tensions high.
- U.S. inflation eased in February as the CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% annually, with core inflation at its slowest pace since April 2021, but economists warn that recent tariff measures could limit further progress.
- Investors will closely watch the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and economic projections, particularly the “dot plot” for rate cut signals, while also tracking retail sales data, housing reports, and Nvidia’s AI chip announcements at its GPU Technology Conference.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages extended still lower.
- US and European bond were little changed on the week
- The US Dollar Index also marked time in consolidation mode.
- Gold futures rallied to a new all time high..
- Oil futures stayed in a low-level consolidation.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: The main central bank events this week are the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement on Wednesday, plus from the Bank of Japan on Wednesday, from the People’s Bank of China and from the Bank of England on Thursday.
Macro Data Watch: The main macro data this week are the US Retail Sales on Monday, Canadian CPI on Tuesday and EU CPI on Wednesday.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 03/17/2025 | Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales; US Retail Sales |
| 03/18/2025 | Canadian CPI; US Industrial Production |
| 03/19/2025 | Japanese Trade Report; BoJ Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement; EU CPI; FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement |
| 03/20/2025 | PBoC Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement; German PPI; UK Employment Report; BoE Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Minutes |
| 03/21/2025 | Japanese CPI; Canadian Retail Sales; UK and EU Consumer Confidence |
