Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- After hitting record highs earlier in the week, U.S. stock averages reversed course, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq posting sharp weekly declines as concerns over consumer spending and earnings reports triggered a broad market selloff, while Chinese stocks outperformed on strong Alibaba earnings.
- Escalating U.S. trade tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty have pressured risk assets, while gold surged to fresh record highs amid safe-haven demand, with analysts forecasting further gains for gold, as central banks and investors seek protection against inflation and market instability.
- The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes signaled a cautious stance, with policymakers keeping rates steady amid inflation concerns, while markets adjusted expectations for potential cuts to no earlier than September.
- Walmart’s weaker-than-expected earnings guidance and a sharp drop in U.S. consumer confidence, driven by inflation fears and slowing retail sales, fueled concerns about economic uncertainty, sending markets lower.
- Investors are eyeing Nvidia’s earnings this coming Wednesday for signs of AI demand resilience, while Friday’s PCE inflation report could impact Fed rate expectations and broader market sentiment.
Global financial market developments
- US equity averages were lower om the week (from record levels).
- US bond yields were lower on the week.
- The US Dollar Index was lower on the week.
- Gold futures nudged higher, posting another new record!
- Oil futures stayed in consolidation at the lower end of the recent range, with bear risk.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: There is little central bank activity of note, but as ever watching Fed speakers through the week.
Macro Data Watch: The main macro data release this week is the US PCE date on Thursday and Friday (notably MoM and YoY on Friday). Other releases of note are the EU CPI on Monday, US GDP on Thursday and Japanese and German CPI on Friday.
Earnings Watch: The main US Q4 earnings release this week is Nvidia on Wednesday.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 02/24/2025 | German IFO; EU CPI |
| 02/25/2025 | German GDP; US Consumer Confidence |
| 02/26/2025 | Australian CPI; German Consumer Confidence |
| 02/27/2025 | EU Consumer Confidence; US PCE (QoQ), GDP and Durable Goods Order |
| 02/28/2025 | Japanese CPI; German Retail Sales, CPI and Unemployment Report; Canadian GDP; US PCE (MoM) (YoY) |
