Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- U.S. stock indices saw modest gains with the Dow and S&P 500 hitting record highs, while bond yields spiked, driven by strong jobs data, despite concerns over Middle Eastern tensions and labour unrest.
- Middle Eastern tensions spiked oil prices on Tuesday, with Brent crude rising 5% amid concerns over Iran’s missile strike on Israel, driving energy shares up while weighing on risk-sensitive assets like consumer discretionary stocks.
- The U.S. labour market added 254,000 jobs in September, far surpassing expectations, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% and wages rising by 0.4%, reflecting robust economic conditions ahead of the election.
- This week ahead, investors will be watching the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes and U.S. inflation data, as both are expected to offer critical insights into the future pace of interest rate cuts amid easing inflation and a strong labour market.
Global financial market developments
- US stock averages extended slowly higher
- US and European bond were higher on the week
- The US Dollar Index posted notable gains from multi-month lows..
- Gold futures marked time, close to record highs.
- Oil futures spiked higher.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: The main central bank activity this week is the Federal Open Market Committee Minutes on Wednesday.
Macro Data Watch: The main macro data release this week is the US CPI data on Thursday. Some other releases of note are the German CPI, Canadian Employment Report and US PPI all released on Friday.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 10/07/2024 | German Factory Orders; EU Retail Sales; |
| 10/08/2024 | UK Retail Sales; RBA Meeting Minutes; German Industrial Production |
| 10/09/2024 | FOMC Minutes |
| 10/10/2024 | US CPI |
| 10/11/2024 | German CPI; UK GDP and Industrial Production; Canadian Employment Report; US PPI |
