Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- The ongoing global spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant and the concerns regarding the new Mu variant, have impacted on growth expectations.
- In addition, ongoing supply chain worries have continued to fuel inflation fears and accentuate growth concerns.
- These factors leave global financial markets vulnerable to erratic, “risk off” moves.
- On Thursday the European Central Bank (ECB) trimmed pandemic bond purchases, though this had limited market impact.
- In the UK, the government secured tax increases of £12 billion for social care and the National Health Service.
Global financial market developments
- Global shares indices saw setbacks from new recovery/ record peaks, with European averages leading averages lower.
- The US Dollar gained in the “risk off” environment, with EURUSD dipping.
- GBPUSD posted losses and gains but remains vulnerable.
- Gold fell with the stronger US Dollar, questioning the recent solid recovery.
- Oil sustained positivity from its recent strong advance.
- Copper extended its rebound bias.
Key this week
- Geopolitics:
- Still monitoring the impact of the global spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant and watching for developments with the Mu variant.
- Checking for possible new national lockdown restrictions or for further global lockdown easings.
- Central Bank Watch: No significant Central Bank activity.
- Macroeconomic data: Data standouts this week are the US, UK, Canadian and EU CPI data, UK and Australian Employment reports and China, US and UK Retail Sales.
| Date | Key Macroeconomic Events |
| 13/09/21 | Nothing of note |
| 14/09/21 | UK Employment report; US CPI |
| 15/09/21 | China Industrial Production and Retail Sales; UK CPI; Canada CPI |
| 16/09/21 | Australian Employment report; US Retail Sales |
| 17/09/21 | UK Retail Sales; EU CPI |
